Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for oil supplies from the Persian Gulf, could resume as early as June, as the risk of oil supply depletion increases pressure on U.S. leadership, according to JPMorgan. Fitch has projected a slightly longer timeline—but they also expect the strait to reopen this summer. Meanwhile, Moody's has warned that President Donald Trump has only a week left before "real problems" start to arise.
Details
"The key assumption underlying this forecast is that the accelerating depletion of oil reserves will eventually lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and our team predicts that this will happen in June," wrote JPMorgan analysts on June 3 in a note quoted by CNBC.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil exports passed before the war between the U.S. and Iran, has been partially blocked for about four months. As the conflict has developed, Tehran has tightened control over this artery, including laying naval mines. Iran has mined "significant sections" of the Strait of Hormuz, indicating more extensive shipping restrictions than previously thought, stated U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on June 2.
U.S. oil reserves have fallen to their lowest level in two decades: last week, they dropped by 10.6 million barrels to 1.57 billion barrels, according to Financial Times citing government data. Such low reserves haven't been seen since 2004, the newspaper claims.
What does Fitch think
The most likely scenario remains the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by July, as economic pressure on the conflict participants will mount, Fitch Ratings' head of natural resources research in the Middle East, Angelina Valavina, told Bloomberg in an interview. In her opinion, several key factors will influence the situation.
First, it's the start of the summer driving season in the U.S., when demand for gasoline traditionally spikes alongside fuel consumption. Second, the release of inflation and GDP data for Q2 2026, expected in July-August, could reflect the fallout from disruptions in the oil market. Additionally, Valavina mentioned the midterm elections in the U.S. as well as China. According to the analyst, Beijing holds strategic oil reserves of about 1.2 billion barrels, which should last the country until around October.
The combination of these factors will intensify economic pressure on the main parties involved in the conflict and the largest consumers of oil, making the reopening of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz by July the most likely scenario, believes Valavina.
Context
The U.S. must literally reach an agreement with Iran within a week to avoid more serious consequences for the economy, stated Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi on June 1. He noted that further increases in oil prices could push gasoline costs above $5 per gallon and raise the risk of a recession.
Brent crude oil rose by 2% in trading on June 3: the price climbed above $98 per barrel. American WTI oil increased by 2.7% — to about $96.3 per barrel.