(Why is the next Kondratiev wave likely to be in blockchain?)

When the market is flat, it is actually the best time to look up and see the distance.

Many people ask:
Why do we always feel that the opportunities of the times pass us by? Others make money in real estate, make money on Taobao, make money in short videos, make money in cryptocurrency, but when it comes to ourselves, we always 'know too late.'

I have experienced this feeling as well. But fortunately, after starting a business in Web2, I unexpectedly hit upon Web3—this was the first time in my life that I truly felt the power of 'standing on the wave.'

In recent years, I have become more and more certain:
What determines whether you can seize the next era is not luck, but whether you possess the ability to 'see the new K-wave.'

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01 | What is the K-wave? How many times can you encounter it in your life?

According to the 'Kondratiev Wave Theory,' a complete K-wave lasts about 40-60 years. At the pace of technological acceleration, each person is likely to encounter 3-5 major cycles that can change their destiny.

For our generation:
• Real estate is one
• PC internet is one
• Mobile internet is one
• Self-media and short videos are one
• And the next... is likely to be a composite wave of blockchain + artificial intelligence + globalization.

But the question arises:
Can you foresee and seize it in advance?

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02 | Why do most people miss opportunities?

Looking back, you will find:
All truly destiny-changing opportunities share three common points.

① At the beginning, they are not recognized by the mainstream (against human nature)
• Bitcoin was early criticized as a scam
• Taobao was initially mocked by traditional merchants
• The earliest creators of Douyin were called 'low'
• Businesspeople in the 90s were labeled as 'speculators'

In the early stages, it is counterintuitive, understood by only a few.

② Information pathways are locked
• What you see is the denunciation from mainstream media
• People in your echo chamber do not talk about these things at all
• Your daily life is separated from the 'epicenter of the wave' by industry, city, and language barriers

The wave never appears where you are most familiar.
It always first germinates in the crowds outside your circle, in languages outside your circle, and in ecosystems outside your circle.

③ Cognition is locked by the previous round of success

This point is the most fatal.

The more money someone made in the previous round, the less likely they are to see the next round.

Because they are firmly locked in by old frameworks, old logic, and old path dependencies.
Those who can detach themselves from the success of the previous round are few and far between.

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03 | Why might blockchain be the next 'K-wave'?

Based on K-wave theory, the next major cycle often has three characteristics:

① Institutional gaps have just opened

Cross-border, finance, and asset confirmation are all emerging new gray areas.
Dozens of countries around the world are implementing crypto-friendly policies, and large funds are accelerating their entry.

The transition from ambiguity to clarity regarding institutions is a massive dividend.

② Technology has driven costs down to absurdly low levels
• Opening a traditional stock exchange requires tens of thousands of people
• A decentralized exchange (DEX) may only need a dozen people
• Clearing, transferring, financing, and governance are all rewritten by smart contracts
• Artificial intelligence + blockchain = Global collaboration costs are about to approach zero

When 'a system that previously belonged exclusively to countries and giants' can suddenly be built by ordinary developers—
The new K-wave will arrive.

③ The migration of people and attention has begun
• Young people are no longer satisfied with 'local opportunities' but are joining the global digital economy
• Assets, identities, and connections are being rebuilt on-chain
• Capital is flowing to global Web3 entrepreneurs
• Gen Z's interest in crypto and AI far exceeds that in real estate and traditional finance

Where attention goes, the next wave will follow.

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04 | How to avoid missing the next K-wave?

You cannot guarantee that you will seize it, but you can ensure that you will not be left behind by the times.

① Force yourself to 'leave your comfort zone of information'
• Look at the new apps that young people are using
• See what is happening in overseas markets
• Pay attention to those new things that are mocked by the mainstream
• Participate in ecosystems that you do not understand but are growing rapidly

Real opportunities are always hidden on the margins.

② Keep your cognition flexible

Never deny the next round because of one round of success.

Understanding always happens after action.

Squeeze a little time and small money every day to experiment, which is essentially buying 'sensitivity to the times.'
This is the cheapest and most important insurance you can give yourself.

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05 | There will be more than 3 opportunities in life

If you can see this, you may be under 40 years old.
That means:

You still have at least 3 more K-wave opportunities.

For ordinary people, seizing one is enough to change their destiny.
The key is:

Have you looked up and gazed into the distance? Are you ready?

Because the next K-wave will never wait for you to be ready.
But it will always reward those who are willing to actively embrace change, break out of their information cocoon, and maintain curiosity.

Will the wave of blockchain become 'that one' in your life?
The answer is never in the industry, but in yourself.