This Week's Macroeconomic Outlook: A Week of Fed Guidance and a Flood of Data

Next week, the Federal Reserve will enter its customary "quiet period" before the December meeting, and a number of economic data points are set to be released. Additionally, with many large traders returning from vacation, the market may experience significant volatility. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the coming week:

Monday 22:45, US November S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final;

Tuesday 09:00, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks at a commemorative event;

Tuesday 23:00, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman testifies before a House committee;

Wednesday 21:15, US November ADP Employment Change;

Wednesday 22:45, US November S&P Global Services PMI Final;

Thursday 20:30, US November Challenger Job Cuts;

Thursday 21:30, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 29;

Friday 23:00, US December 1-Year Inflation Expectations Preliminary, December Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Preliminary, September Core PCE Price Index Year-over-Year, September Personal Spending Month-over-Month, September Core PCE Price Index Month-over-Month.

After several Federal Reserve speakers made a series of hawkish remarks, doves have made a comeback over the past 10 days, bringing the prospect of a rate cut back to the negotiating table for the December meeting. This has caused the probability of a 25 basis point cut on December 10 to soar from about 25% to nearly 80%, a dramatic reversal that has resonated throughout the financial markets. Federal Reserve officials typically guide Wall Street towards their final decision before meetings to avoid surprises. Over the past two years (covering a total of 20 Federal Reserve meetings), traders have only failed to fully digest the results three times close to policy decisions. #加密市场反弹