When S&P labeled the world's largest stablecoin USDT with the 'weakest rating', the entire crypto community was waiting for Tether's response—on November 30, CEO Paolo Ardoino directly threw out a 'game-changing' reply: The Q3 group’s equity approached 30 billion USD, just the 135 billion USD in U.S. treasury bonds earns 500 million a month, equivalent to a daily income of 16 million USD! On one side is the profit like a money printer, and on the other side are S&P's risk warnings and BitMEX's predictions of a collapse. In this century's gamble on stablecoins, who is swimming naked?
First, let’s look at Tether's 'hardcore confidence': 215 billion total assets backing, 184.5 billion in stablecoin liabilities corresponding to 7 billion in excess reserves + 23 billion in retained earnings, a triple safety net directly pressing down the doubts about 'insufficient collateral'. More aggressively, its U.S. treasury position—135 billion USD scale makes it the 17th largest holder of U.S. treasuries globally, even higher than South Korea’s official holdings, with a monthly interest income comparable to the net profit of a medium-sized listed company. This is also the core capital that allows Tether to stand up against S&P. The quarterly verification data continuously disclosed since 2021 has further been used to challenge: 'Transparency is higher than most traditional financial institutions.'
But the S&P's 'weak rating' is by no means unfounded. The latest data shows that the proportion of high-risk assets in USDT reserves has soared from 17% last year to 24%, with Bitcoin accounting for 5.6%, just surpassing the 3.9% over-collateralization rate, meaning that if the BTC price plummets, it could directly breach the safety cushion. Even more surprising is Tether's 'gold buying frenzy'—as of the end of September, it has held 116 tons of gold, worth $14 billion, equivalent to the official gold reserves of countries like South Korea and Greece. In just Q3, it bought 26 tons, accounting for 2% of global gold demand for the season, with buying strength even exceeding that of single central banks. This operation of 'stablecoins backed by gold' directly conflicts with the U.S. (GENIUS Act) prohibition on compliant stablecoins using gold as reserves, hiding compliance risks.
The warning from BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes adds to the horror: Tether is betting heavily on the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, using gold and BTC to hedge against the risk of declining interest income from U.S. Treasury bonds, but this is akin to tying one's fate to high-volatility assets. Based on the current $30 billion of its own equity, as long as the 'gold + BTC positions' drop by 30%, it will directly wipe out all equity, and USDT will theoretically be insolvent. The reality is that BTC has pulled back nearly 30% from its historical high in October, and recently broke below the $90,000 mark, just one step away from Hayes' predicted 'collapse red line.' In the past 24 hours, nearly 140,000 people in the crypto market have been liquidated, and panic sentiment continues to spread.
On one side is a monthly profit of $500 million, comparable to the asset reserves of sovereign nations; on the other is a surge in high-risk asset exposure and compliance controversies. Tether's 'stablecoin gamble' is rewriting the rules of the crypto market. It is both a global central bank-level buyer of gold and U.S. Treasury bonds, and an aggressive player betting on crypto assets; it proves its resilience through profits while inciting greater controversy due to asset allocation.
$BTC $ZEC $COAI #加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察 #ETH巨鲸增持 #ETH走势分析 #特朗普加密新政
