This week's macro outlook: A week of Fed signaling and a flood of data

Next week, the Federal Reserve will enter its customary "quiet period" before the December meeting, and a number of economic data will be released. Additionally, as large traders return from vacation, the market may experience significant volatility next week. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week:

Monday 22:45, US November S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value;

Tuesday 09:00, Federal Reserve Chair Powell speaks at a memorial event;

Tuesday 23:00, Fed Governor Bowman testifies before a House committee;

Wednesday 21:15, US November ADP employment change;

Wednesday 22:45, US November S&P Global Services PMI final value;

Thursday 20:30, US November Challenger job cuts;

Thursday 21:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29;

Friday 23:00, US December 1-year inflation expectations preliminary value, December University of Michigan consumer sentiment index preliminary value, September core PCE price index year-on-year, September personal spending month-on-month, September core PCE price index month-on-month.

After several Federal Reserve speakers delivered a series of hawkish remarks, the doves have made a comeback in the past 10 days, bringing the prospect of a rate cut back to the negotiating table for the December meeting. This has increased the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut on December 10 from about 25% to nearly 80%, and this dramatic turnaround has resonated in the financial markets. Federal Reserve officials typically guide Wall Street toward their final decision before meetings to avoid surprises. Over the past two years (covering a total of 20 Federal Reserve meetings), traders have only failed to fully digest the results three times close to policy decisions.