#美联储重启降息步伐 The Federal Reserve will restart interest rate cuts in September 2025, lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4%-4.25%. This is the first rate cut since December 2024. Another rate cut of 25 basis points is expected in December, with a market probability of 85%.
Reasons for Rate Cuts
Economic Data: The U.S. consumption growth rate is declining, and economic growth is slowing down, with the government's historic 43-day shutdown impacting the economy.
Political Pressure: The White House is pressuring the Federal Reserve to stabilize the economy and pave the way for the midterm elections in 2026.
Inflation and Employment: The inflation rate has dropped to around 3%, but the labor market remains tight, and wage pressure persists.
Impact Analysis
Global Market: The U.S. dollar may weaken, the Chinese yuan may appreciate, and international capital may increase allocation to Chinese assets.
China: The monetary policy space is expanding, and the A-shares are expected to continue their bull market.
Risks: Premature rate cuts may exacerbate inflation and lead to economic stagnation.
Future Outlook
The Federal Reserve may adopt a "moderate, gradual" approach to rate cuts, but the path is subject to uncertainty influenced by political and economic factors.
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