Although the current round of quantitative tightening in the U.S. will end today, the related effects may not be seen until early next year!

News: On December 1, Into The Cryptoverse CEO Benjamin Cowen stated that in 2019, the Federal Reserve announced that the quantitative tightening policy would end on August 1. However, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet continued to decline in August, as the final round of treasury bond maturities would not be settled until mid-August.

Therefore, although this round of quantitative tightening ends on December 1, it does not mean that the balance sheet will immediately start to improve. Such changes may not be seen until early 2026.

Starting in 2022, the Federal Reserve implemented 'quantitative tightening' (QT), not buying new bonds and allowing old bonds to mature, causing money to flow out. This deliberate contraction was aimed at suppressing inflation, but it also reduced the money in the market, severely tightening market liquidity.

This reminds me of the Federal Reserve announcing the end of QT on August 1, 2019, but actually, the money supply continued to tighten in August because some bond maturities had to be delayed until mid-August.

Similarly, this QT was officially announced to end on December 1, but the Federal Reserve's balance sheet will not immediately start to improve, possibly waiting until early 2026 for the money from those matured bonds to truly come back!

So don't be too optimistic; the market still needs to endure in the short term. History always repeats itself. In 2019, the QT ended but did not immediately save the market; instead, the market initially dropped (Bitcoin also swayed at that time) until later when the Federal Reserve switched to 'quantitative easing' (QE, printing money to buy assets), which truly lifted the bull market.

Today, everyone saw that Bitcoin dropped again, from a recent high of 93080 to around the current price of 86034! The ratio of altcoins to BTC may first drop to 0.25 (historical low) before rebounding—this is a short-term positive for BTC (BTC is strong), but in the long run, it signals the overall crypto market warming up.

After the end of QT in 2019 and the start of QE, Bitcoin surged more than 10 times from its low point. Starting from early 2026, a flood of money may repeat the 'V-shaped reversal' of 2019 for Bitcoin!