December 1st BTC market outlook, personal views for reference only

A new beginning, a new layout.

A deep decline from 126000 to 80600 is defined as a strong bearish trend, with rebounds in the 80600-93000 range being weak retracements, primarily driven by profit-taking from bears, with non-spot demand entering the market. The rebound has not broken through previous key pause levels, and the reversal logic is not established.

The volume selling on the first day of December meets expectations, and those chasing high prices face the risk of being trapped.

The monthly line testing the upper Bollinger band has failed, resulting in a doji star + large bearish combination after a false breakout. The MACD has formed a dead cross at a high position and is moving downwards, confirming the bearish trend, and this month has the momentum to refresh the low points.

The weekly bearish structure is confirmed, and after the decline, it has formed a small bullish candle with a long upper shadow, most likely indicating a top being built through bottom oscillation or direct downward movement, with a very low probability of reversal.

The cycle rhythm is a decline - weak rebound, with the daily line pinning up and rebounding to the middle Bollinger band encountering resistance and falling back.

In simple terms, the rebound is for shorting, with today's short position at 88888, attempting a short-term long near 85000, and looking to break the 80k mark as a major target. #加密市场反弹 $BTC $ETH