It's not 'the bear is coming'; the bear is already crashing on the couch.
Just checked the market, and BTC is hovering around 61k. Last night it dipped to 59099 bucks—yeah, you heard that right, in the 5s. Over the last 24 hours, there was a whopping 1.5 billion in liquidations across the board, with 80% of it coming from our long bros. Fear index at 12, absolute panic. To put it bluntly: even dogs walking by the crypto scene are getting kicked.
Why's it dropping like this? Let me break down a few 'culprits' for you.
First off, that old trickster at the Fed is stirring the pot again. Non-farm payroll data is ridiculously good, and the market is freaking out, starting to bet on interest rate hikes. Dollar's up, bond yields are up, and BTC? Down. It's not that BTC's failing; it's that all high-risk assets (tech stocks, gold, and us) are getting indiscriminately 'harvested'.
Secondly, the micro strategy surprisingly sold coins! Although they only sold 32 coins, it’s their first ‘breaking of the rules’ in four years. The market doesn’t fear your selling; it fears if the ‘faith’ pillar cracks. Plus, ETFs have seen a net outflow for 13 consecutive days, with 4.4 billion dollars leaving, and institutions are fleeing faster than retail—who can handle that?
Thirdly, all the money has been snatched up by AI and SpaceX. There’s only so much hot money globally, and it’s all chasing AI and SpaceX listings. With no new stories in crypto, it naturally became the first to be ‘sold off and rotated’ out.
Fourthly, a leveraged chain reaction. Breaking below 70,000 and then 66,000 triggered a cascade of liquidations; it’s not that everyone wanted to sell, it’s that they had no choice. That’s how prices got smashed down.
From a technical perspective, I’ll mention just two numbers.
Lower hard support: 55,000~57,000. This is the 200-week moving average level, which has been hit four times historically, each time becoming a mid-term bottom. But will it hold this time? Hard to say; if the macro environment worsens, a spike down to 50,000 wouldn’t surprise me at all.
Upper resistance: 66,000 is the first hurdle, 70,000~73,000 is strong resistance. Too many people are trapped above; it won’t break through easily.
Strategy:
In this market, don’t guess the bottom, just play the right side.
I’m focusing on two scenarios:
Scenario One (going with the trend): If BTC bounces to around 63,000 and can’t hold, I’ll short a small position, targeting 62,000-61,000-60,000, with a stop loss at 64,000. — Don’t call me a bear, in this market, going with the flow isn’t shameful.
Scenario Two (betting on a bounce): If BTC dares to dip to around 58,000 again and shows signs of stopping, I’ll add a small long position, targeting 59,000-60,000-61,000, with a stop loss at 57,000. — Remember, it’s a ‘bet’, not ‘gamble’. Position size should be halved from usual.
Right now, two things to avoid:
Going all in on the dip—put in 50k and still have 40k left, who really knows?
Holding the line—brothers on high leverage, if you need to cut, just cut, don’t let your principal get wiped out.
My advice boils down to one thing: keep your hands in check, hold cash, and wait for that ‘foot stepping on the landmine’ to actually land. A crash isn't scary; what's scary is having no bullets when it happens.
Personal opinion, for reference only.