This morning at 8 o'clock, the pancake was pressed against the ground and rubbed.
From 93000, it plummeted to 88500, a drop of 4.3% in one hour, and then continued to decline to 85555. ETH dropped 5%, BNB dropped 7%, and 210,000 people across the network were liquidated, with 640 million disappearing into thin air. This is not a randomly occurring black swan but a collective bearish signal of choir-level magnitude.
High leverage long positions were trampled.
Breaking below the key level of 90,000 instantly triggered 15 billion in forced liquidations, leading to a chain of liquidations → further price acceleration downwards → more liquidations, a typical case of killing the longs.
Xiao Zhuge explained the five core reasons behind this situation simultaneously:
1. The Federal Reserve turned hawkish.
The data in November was too strong, halving the expectations for interest rate cuts, the dollar soared, and Bitcoin was negatively correlated with interest rates at -0.9, with liquidity at freezing point directly draining the oxygen from high-risk assets.
2. ETF outflows for 7 consecutive weeks.
Institutions are not bottom-fishing but continuously withdrawing.
Last week, 88 million flowed out, and the funds that scrambled to buy at the beginning of the year have recently been dumping.
3. Regulatory uncertainty.
The U.S. cryptocurrency bill is stuck in the Senate, and the domestic emphasis on virtual currencies being illegal financial activities has resurfaced.
4. Long-term holders sold 800,000 BTC.
5. Technical weakness.
Falling 25% from the peak of 125,000, it was already on shaky ground.
The order book depth has shrunk, and sell orders can easily break through; even the Nasdaq's drop can drag BTC down with it.
The result is: macro tightening + institutional withdrawal + regulatory pressure + high leverage liquidations + technical collapse. This collectively triggered the knife this morning. Bitcoin is no longer a safe-haven asset but purely a risk asset, moving in sync with U.S. stocks. In the short term, it may hold around 86,000, but the pressure remains enormous. I personally predict it may need to touch 75,000 for a decent rebound. Starting off December like this, what follows—will only be more extreme stimuli…
