�Recent candles are red with weak wicks on the downside, which shows sellers are closing the day in control and buyers are not yet defending levels aggressively.�Money flow dataOn the 1D money‑flow screen, total sells slightly dominate buys (around 117.5M sell vs 109.2M buy), and large orders show net outflow, confirming distribution by bigger players.�Medium and small orders are more balanced, which often means retailers are still trying to buy dips while smart money is exiting into that liquidity.�Token metrics and fundamentalsMarket cap is about 360M with a fully diluted valuation near 1.8B, which is quite high compared to current sentiment and increases the risk of valuation compression in bear phases.�Circulating supply is roughly 1.98B versus a total 10B, so there is a big amount of tokens still to unlock, and the all‑time high of about 1.68 USDT versus the recent all‑time low near 0.176 shows how brutal the drawdown already is.�Ready‑to‑use article postXPL/USDT – Smart Money Booking Out, Retail Still Buying the Dip?XPL has entered a heavy downtrend on the daily timeframe, sliding from the 0.30–0.35 zone to the 0.18 area with a clean series of lower highs and lower lows.� Each red candle closes near its low, signalling aggressive selling and very limited buying strength at the end of the sessions.� Technically, this is classic “falling knife” price action where any bounce is getting sold into rather than starting a new uptrend.�The trading‑data screen adds an important confirmation: in the last 24 hours, total sell volume slightly beats buy volume, and large orders show clear net outflow while small and medium orders are almost balanced.� That pattern usually means big wallets are using retail dip‑buying as exit liquidity, quietly distributing their bags while the crowd still hopes for a quick reversal.� Until this relationship flips in favour of strong, consistent large‑order inflows, rallies are more likely to be short‑lived relief moves than the start of a new bull leg.�On the fundamental side, XPL is also in a vulnerable spot: the project already commands a market cap in the mid‑hundreds of millions, but the fully diluted valuation is roughly five times higher because only part of the 10B total supply is circulating.� That big locked supply acts like a shadow above the chart, because every future unlock adds potential selling pressure on the open market.� The contrast between the all‑time high near 1.68 USDT and the recent all‑time low just under 0.18 USDT shows how brutally leverage and hype have been washed out, leaving late buyers with deep unrealized losses.�For traders, this environment can still offer opportunities, but only with disciplined risk management. Short‑term scalpers can watch the 0.17–0.18 support zone for oversold bounces, targeting moves back toward local resistance while keeping tight stop‑losses just below recent lows.� Investors and position traders, however, may prefer to stay patient and let the trend stabilize, waiting for a clear shift in money flow towards sustained large‑order inflows and a strong base‑building range before thinking about long‑term entries.� In simple words: respect the downtrend, don’t chase hope pumps, and treat capital
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