Data for this week:

Tuesday 9:00 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at a memorial event.

Tuesday 23:00 Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will testify before a House committee.

Wednesday 21:15 U.S. November ADP employment numbers (10,000s).

Thursday 21:30 U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 (10,000s).

Friday 23:00 U.S. September core PCE price index year-on-year.

Friday 23:00 U.S. December one-year inflation expectations preliminary.

Friday 23:00 U.S. December University of Michigan consumer sentiment index preliminary.

Comments from Federal Reserve officials, especially public statements from Chairman Powell, directly shape market expectations regarding the path of monetary policy. If the stance leans dovish, it will strengthen expectations of maintaining or shifting towards easier liquidity, usually benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin. If it leans hawkish, it will tighten expectations, creating short-term pressure.

ADP employment and initial jobless claims, as high-frequency labor data, reflect economic resilience in real time. Strong data may reinforce the Federal Reserve's stance to maintain high interest rates, suppressing market sentiment. If the data shows significant weakness, it could quickly elevate expectations for rate cuts, often providing upward momentum for crypto assets.

The core PCE price index, as the Federal Reserve's most valued inflation indicator, is a key determinant in policy-making. A number higher than expected will strengthen the narrative of "higher rates for longer," suppressing risk appetite, while meeting or falling below expectations can alleviate tightening concerns, usually supporting asset prices.

Data changes - adjusting Federal Reserve policy expectations - impacting global dollar liquidity outlook - reshaping the valuation logic of global risk assets, including crypto assets.

For retail investors, it is crucial to closely monitor candlestick patterns, macro information, and market sentiment to adjust their strategies, making more rigorous decisions in position management and cycle layout. #美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场反弹