Family, who understands! Today, when I opened the market software, my pupils trembled. The mainstream digital assets were hit by a large bearish candle that pierced through key levels, with 220,000 people across the internet directly being told to 'get off the bus', and the liquidation scale skyrocketing to 12 billion!
Many people are crying out 'bad news is crashing the market' 'the bear market is here', but as a veteran in crypto for 8 years, I've analyzed 3000 trending posts, dissected long and short data, and the sentiment in the comments section, and I can only say: this is not a market crash at all, it's a 'surgical wash' meticulously planned by the main force, specifically targeting 'stubborn bulls' and 'reckless bottom fishers'!
One, what seems like a stampede is actually a 'well-calculated chain harvesting'.
Do you really think such a large-scale liquidation can happen naturally? Too naive!
Today's drop rhythm is simply like following a script: first, mainstream assets break the 90000 key level, instantly triggering the first wave of leveraged liquidation; then related assets follow the drop, causing a chain reaction of liquidation among bulls; finally, niche digital assets drop to clean out all those retail investors who went all-in.
I flipped through all the liquidation data online and found a key detail: this drop did not have panic selling; it was all passive liquidations! Simply put, the main players precisely hit the key point 'switch', triggering a chain explosion of leverage across the platform at the minimum cost — this is not a drop; it's clearly the main players 'precisely harvesting the chives'!
Two, Japan's interest rate hike? The 'invisible siphon' that crushes leverage.
Many people only focus on the actions of the Federal Reserve, forgetting Japan, the 'invisible giant of global liquidity'!
A highly upvoted comment in the area says it correctly: 'The real one draining funds is not the US, but Japan.' As the world's largest overseas creditor, Japan's zero interest rate era has led to a massive outflow of capital into risk assets, and once interest rate hike expectations rise, this capital will accelerate backflow, directly causing a devaluation of global risk assets.
The trigger for this drop was precisely the fermentation of Japan's interest rate hike expectations. The main players just happened to take advantage of this 'external wind', igniting the high-leverage positions of retail investors — after all, the leverage you added is just a bubble that can be popped with a poke in the eyes of the main players!
Three, why did the main players choose to act today? The retail investors' 'optimism' is a signal.
To be honest, the signs of this liquidation were evident long ago! I recently noticed something wrong while checking the data:
Among the top 100 trending searches, the long-short ratio of mainstream assets is severely unbalanced, with some assets' long-short ratio even reaching 3:1; the comments are filled with declarations like 'I won't leave, I will hold on until the end' and 'the more it drops, the more I buy, I will bottom fish and make a fortune'; some even share screenshots of their full positions, shouting 'Fortune favors the bold' — all these are signals that 'it's time to act' in the eyes of the main players!
Retail investors aren't afraid of drops, won't cut losses, and even dare to use leverage? Then the main players can only give you a lesson: using a big bearish candle to forcibly close long positions, clearing out the lucky ones, driving away bottom fishers, and crushing the 'hold-on tribe'. The worst part is that this wave of decline 'only kills leverage, not spot' and 'only washes positions without harming the fundamentals', while the main players' own bottom positions remain stable — this operation can only be described as 'the old ginger is still spicy'!
Four, the most dangerous thing is not the crash, but the 'blind optimism' before the drop.
I scrolled through thousands of comments and found three fatal emotional misconceptions; you can identify which one applies to you:
'Let it drop, I won't run, the more it drops, the more I buy' — the main players love your kind of 'headstrong player'; if they don’t cut you, who will?
'The next K-line will definitely pull back' — stop comforting yourself, the main players won't give you a chance to break even!
'I bottom fished, this time I will definitely make a profit' — the bottom you think you have may be a pit dug by the main players!
What the main players excel at is 'contrarian operation': when everyone is optimistic, not panicking, and holding onto their positions tightly, they will create a reason that 'forces you to sell'. Today's operation of 'not going up or down, a bearish candle clearing leverage' is essentially a 'mental liquidation' — smashing your lucky mentality to pieces!
Five, the real bottom is when 'no one talks about the market'.
Many people are scared by today's drop and are asking me if a bear market has arrived. I clearly say: No!
What does a real bear market bottom look like? It's when there’s no volume, no liquidations, no one cursing, no one analyzing, and the comments area is eerily quiet — everyone is tired, too lazy to watch the market, even uninstalling the app; this is the bottom signal.
And today? The comments area is filled with curses, everyone is sharing operations, analyzing the market, and shouting to bottom fish; enthusiasm has not diminished at all — this indicates that the sentiment has not reached the extreme, and it is definitely not the bottom! But this is not the middle of a bear market; rather, it's a typical 'massive wash in the middle of a bull market': the main players are not aiming to crash the market but to 'change hands', pushing out the indecisive retail investors and letting those who can withstand the pressure take the positions, then continue to rise.
Six, precise judgments from the old-timers: these three levels must be closely monitored.
Finally, let’s talk about some key points; save this for reference later.
90000: Psychological + technical double barrier; after breaking, there will be short-term fluctuations.
86000: Strong wash level, likely to be tested repeatedly.
82000: The last support level; as long as it doesn’t continuously break below with volume, it’s still a bull market structure.
89500: Signal for the end of the wash, can gradually lay out positions after stabilizing.
Remember: this is not a danger zone; it's the main players 'forcing you to hand over positions' in the accumulation zone. The essence of the market is 'position transfer' from those afraid of drops to those who can withstand the wash.
Friends who were liquidated today, don’t be discouraged, learn from this experience, and don’t use such high leverage next time; friends still holding on, keep an eye on the 82000 level, and don’t blindly add to your positions; friends wanting to bottom fish, wait a bit longer for the signal that the wash is over.
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