Hello friend, new week, new adventure, new projects in mind but increasing doubts about whom to trust.

As usual, this week I come with an analysis that is making headlines in the media about crypto, especially since it concerns the mother crypto. I have gone through the analyses and here is my summary regarding the price analysis of BTC in December.

This analysis is based on several aspects listed in a more explicit way. Enjoy it, friend.

1. Context and long-term perspective

According to KuCoin's analysis, experts anticipate that the average price of Bitcoin (BTC) in December 2025 could be around $110,548, with extremes ranging from approximately $110,068 to $111,028.

This range not only marks a symbolic crossing of the $100,000 threshold but also a sustained positioning above $110,000, reflecting growing confidence in Bitcoin's role as a store of value.

Three main drivers have been identified to support this trajectory:

1. The effect of halving: even though the halving event has occurred, its most powerful impact on prices tends to manifest 12 to 18 months later, corresponding to the end of 2025.

2. Institutional inflow: spot ETFs have democratized institutions' access to Bitcoin, and pension funds, sovereign funds, or asset managers are expected to significantly increase their BTC allocations.

3. The cycle of global liquidity: if some central banks adopt a more dovish policy, this could generate an excess of liquidity, beneficial to high-beta assets like Bitcoin.

2. Major potential catalysts (drivers) for a push towards $110,000+

2.1 Institutional adoption and ETF flows

The rise of Bitcoin ETFs is driving massive capital flows. These products offer institutions a regulated pathway to BTC exposure, fueling long-term demand.

According to some research, the integration of Bitcoin into institutional portfolios could further strengthen its correlation with traditional markets while consolidating its status as a strategic asset.

Additionally, other analysts mention the thesis of a "scarcity of supply": net withdrawals from exchanges, outflows to cold storage, and accumulation by long-term entities reduce the amount of BTC available for sale.

2.2 Supply dynamics: halving & miner behavior

The impact of halving is a key element: by reducing the creation of new bitcoins, supply pressure is alleviated.

From the miners' side, some may sell their BTC to cover costs, especially if margins tighten. However, if only the least efficient miners capitulate, the remaining network could be more resilient.

Moreover, on-chain metrics show that reserves on exchanges are decreasing, suggesting a tightening of liquidity.

2.3 Macroeconomic sentiment and liquidity

With potentially more accommodative monetary policy, investors may seek high-yield or high-growth potential assets — Bitcoin could benefit from this.

But Bitcoin remains correlated with risky stocks: if there are macroeconomic turmoil (inflation, interest rates, geopolitical uncertainties), this could slow its ascent.

The return of liquidity to markets, combined with risk appetite, could create a favorable environment for a rally.

3. Potential risks and challenges

Even in an optimistic scenario, several obstacles could limit or slow the rise to $110,000+:

1. Regulatory pressure

– Regulators may intervene, which could affect the confidence of institutional investors.

– Unfavorable changes in ETFs, crypto taxation, or KYC/AML compliance rules could hinder adoption.

2. Slowing ETF flows or low conviction

– If ETF inflows slow down or if certain players reduce their exposure, buying dynamics could weaken.

– The lack of persistent "buying pressure" could lead to corrections or consolidations.

3. Macroeconomic uncertainties

– A reversal of monetary policies (for example, interest rate hikes) could reduce liquidity.

– Geopolitical or economic shocks may push investors to caution and trigger capital outflows.

4. Internal liquidity of the Bitcoin ecosystem

– If reserves on exchanges do not decrease as expected, liquid supply could remain significant.

– Less efficient miners may be forced to sell, which would increase selling pressure.

4. Possible investment strategy

Based on these perspectives, here are some strategic ideas:

Long-term vision: For investors convinced of Bitcoin's potential as a long-term store of value, aiming for consolidation around $100,000, or even using pullbacks as accumulation opportunities, could be wise.

Risk management: Given the correlation with traditional markets, it may be useful to closely monitor monetary policies, macro announcements, and limit leverage.

Diversification: Allocation to Bitcoin should be balanced with other assets (stocks, bonds, other cryptos) to manage volatility.

Monitoring on-chain indicators: Observing exchange flows, reserves, whale accumulation, and institutions can provide valuable signals about supply dynamics.

Ultimately, this analysis offers an optimistic yet structured vision: a Bitcoin around $110,000 in December 2025 is a credible scenario, supported by halving dynamics, massive institutional inflows via ETFs, and a potentially favorable macro context. However, this path to $110k will not be without obstacles: regulation, liquidity, and volatility remain concrete risks.

For investors, the approach could be to stay long-term while keeping an eye on macro and on-chain signals. Well-managed, this rally could represent a crucial phase of strategic accumulation before new potential peaks.

Note: this analysis has been carried out almost entirely by KuCoin

If you want to track Bitcoin’s real-time price heading into December, you can check the BTC price chart on Binance’s price directory. 👉👉👉 Here