If you look back at the last three cycles, Bitcoin bear markets have consistently lasted between 365 and 396 days from the peak. The 2016 and 2020 cycles are the closest macro regime to what we're dealing with now.

If $BTC topped around October to November 2025, then doing the simple math puts the bottom window around October to November 2026. We're sitting in early June right now, which means we're looking at roughly four to five months before we enter the historical zone where cyclical bottoms actually form.

That's not a prediction for a specific day, but it is a reality check for anyone trying to knife-catch the bottom right now. The structure is still working itself out, and these final months of a bear market are usually the most brutal — the bounces get weaker, the selling gets more persistent, and the crowd that bought the "dip" three months ago is now underwater.

The point isn't to time the exact low. It's to understand that we're still in the window where patience pays more than aggression. When the bottom actually arrives, it won't be subtle. But we're not there yet.