For the buyback zone if a bear market is confirmed, I use this chart that shows the correction (in 13 months) around 0.7-0.6, which is between 60 and 70% correction / ATH

Hello, I am an Ichimoku trader, and here is my technical analysis on bitcoin currently.

What you need to know about Ichimoku is that the most powerful signal is the break of the kumos (the red and green clouds). The larger the time frame, the stronger the signal will be.
It is even more powerful when the chikou span (the lagging span in white) is below the price of past periods.

Here, it is the case.

Looking at the last 2 bear markets, it was also the case. When the price breaks the kumos weekly, it's a bear market. There's even the signal in 3D that shows up earlier.

I also use Fibonacci retracement as you've noticed. Historically, the 0.382 level has been a rebound zone during bull run retracements... or pivot breaks. Basically, if this level is not maintained, the market gods will have decided to give us a hard time.

You will also notice the volume profile on the right. It's a big dip we have here. It indicates a bearish acceleration of the price, if the Kumos weekly + 0.382 fib levels are not maintained, then the price will make a good liquidity cascade that will bring us back to around 70500$ .

Otherwise, tomorrow we are supposed to have the end of QT by Jerome Powell. I don't count too much on it, because historically, it takes 6 months to ripple through the markets.
But let's assume it is bullish. You are reading me also because maybe you want a dose of hopium?

First, we need to bounce off the 0.382 level.
Then, around 93500$, there is a break of the kumos in 4h, but it's a signal as strong as a pony, but it can help us break free from the volume profile block that is forming at 96k. Then there will be the 100k to break free from. Big resistance, which can pivot. I dare to hope that the price will return above the tenkan and kinjun, then it will be very positive.

But we are far from that.

Conclusion: Below 80k it's mega bear. Personally, I sell everything if that happens.