Weekly summary to start:
BTC short at 69500 → ✅ +1.8R, risk-reward ratio 1:2.3
ETH long at 3680 → ✅ +1.2R, risk-reward ratio 1:1.8
SOL short 172 → ❌ -1R, risk-reward ratio 1:2.5
BTC long 70200 → ❌ -1R, risk-reward ratio 1:3
PEPE short → ✅ +0.6R, risk-reward ratio 1:1.5
Total profit/loss: +1.6R. Win rate 60%. Outperformed the market, but the second BTC long was the dumbest trade of the week; more details below.
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BTC long at 70200: textbook fake breakout
The logic behind this trade: BTC consolidated in the 69500-70500 range for three days, then broke out with volume on Wednesday night at 70200. I chased it, placing a stop-loss at 69800 and targeting 71500. Risk-reward ratio 1:3, seemed like a good deal.
What's the issue? The volume didn't keep up. The breakout on that 5-minute candlestick only had 60% of the volume of the previous bearish candle. A real breakout should have solid volume confirmation, but I was just thinking 'don't miss out' and skipped a step.
Then what? The price shot up to 70450 and then fizzled out; within 15 minutes, a bearish candle swallowed all the gains. I got stopped out at 69800, taking a loss of 1R.
Looking back, I should have waited for a 5-minute candlestick to close above 70200 before jumping in, even if it meant a higher entry cost; the confirmation would have been completely different.
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ETH long position at 3680: my most satisfying trade of the week.
On Wednesday night, the ETH/BTC rate strengthened first, and ETH made 4 retests in the 3650-3680 range without breaking. On the fourth retest, I entered, setting my stop loss at 3630 and targeting 3780 (previous high).
I held this trade for 2 days, moving my stop loss to above my entry price at 3740. Finally, I took profits and exited at 3780. I didn't get greedy or exit early; I executed the plan completely.
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Attitude towards losing trades.
A lot of people only share their winning trades in their recaps. I don’t think losing money is embarrassing; what’s embarrassing is failing to acknowledge and learn from your losses.
Two losing trades this week: I chased a long on BTC after a fake breakout without volume confirmation. The SOL short was purely against the trend for a quick scalp; not worth mentioning, and I won’t do that again.
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Looking ahead to next week.
BTC: The psychological level at 70000 still hasn't held. The 4-hour structure is leaning bearish. If it breaks below 68500 next week, I'll add to my shorts, targeting 66500. If it stabilizes above 70500 with volume, I'll flip long.
ETH: Stronger than BTC; as long as the exchange rate doesn’t crash, I’ll keep looking for long opportunities.
SOL: Not touching it for now; the structure is too messy.
Risk warning: The above are my personal trading records and plans, not investment advice. Every trade has a stop loss set, and my stop loss level may not be yours. Trade with a stop loss; staying in the game means there’s always next week.