everdao

CPI is done, and BTC is still stuck in the 89k-93k range. The next real event that could break this balance is the FOMC tomorrow morning.
The FOMC is different from CPI—CPI is about betting on numbers, while the FOMC is about betting on sentiment. A single shift in Powell's wording can have a bigger impact than the two decimal points in CPI. So, managing positions before and after the FOMC is not just about guessing direction; it's about controlling the probability of getting swept out.
My game plan is divided into three phases:
① Before the FOMC (today) → Reduce to 30% position. No naked trading and no heavy positions. The long positions I’m holding are my base, with a stop-loss set at 87k. Not shorting, because there are too many bear traps after the rate decision.

BTC has been ranging in the 89k-93k box for a full 10 days. The trading volume is shrinking day by day, the funding rate for contracts has returned to neutral, and everyone in the market is waiting for the same thing—tonight's US CPI at 20:30.
Why is this CPI so crucial? Because it's the last heavyweight data point before the June FOMC. Once the CPI is released, the market's pricing of the June rate cut probability will adjust immediately, and BTC is likely to choose a direction within 2-4 hours after the data.
Three scenarios and my strategies:
① If CPI is lower than expected (most bullish) → Interest rate cut expectations heat up, BTC will challenge the 95k resistance zone. I'll add to my position after confirming a volume breakout on the 15-minute chart, not chasing the first spike.

BTC was still swinging within the range yesterday, no breakout. The box has been running for 9 days now, two days longer than the last consolidation, but the essence hasn’t changed — upper resistance hasn’t been digested, and lower support hasn’t broken. Volume has clearly shrunk, and the market is waiting for Wednesday's CPI to give direction.
Short-term logic is pretty simple:
CPI lower than expected → BTC spikes to previous highs
CPI flat or slightly high → keep grinding, might even test the bottom of the range again
My strategy remains unchanged: no betting on data. Position size kept under half, will add on confirmed breakouts, and won't cut if it retests without breaking. In this kind of market, the biggest fear isn't losing money, but getting stopped out repeatedly — the friction costs in low-volume chop hurt more than being wrong on direction.

Let's summarize today's airdrops and reward projects worth watching:
1. Plume airdrop claims
Deadline: August 2026
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LTC is working on EVM-compatible L2, currently grinding rewards in the testnet phase
Event entry: https://app.arkada.gg/?ref=UHM8W
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4. Prediction Market @Outcomexyz
Make predictions on crypto events; feel free to check it out

Last week, BTC traded sideways in the 68800-70500 range for a whole week, bouncing up and down without breaking through. Today is Monday, and the range has been in play for 8 days; the breakout window is getting closer.
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At this point in the range, there are several key signals.
1) Volume contraction and sideways action. Since last Wednesday, BTC's 4H volume has been continuously shrinking. A volume drop at the end of a consolidation phase is a classic accumulation pattern—once the direction is set, the momentum won’t be small.
2) ETH leading the charge. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has stabilized around 0.054, with ETH showing strength between 3750-3850 from last Friday to the weekend. If ETH breaks out first, BTC is likely to follow suit.

I didn't make too many trades this week, just 3 in total, with 2 wins and 1 loss, net profit +0.8R.
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Weekly market review
BTC has been ranging between 69000 and 71000 all week, with three attempts to break 70500 getting smacked down, and two dips to 68800 holding strong. A classic consolidation box with neither bulls nor bears having a clear edge.
ETH is relatively strong, with the ETH/BTC rate climbing from 0.052 to 0.054, and altcoins are generally riding the wave without falling.
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My 3 trades
1) Short BTC at 70450 → Take profit at 69300, +1.6R
I opened the short at 70450 on Monday, reasoning being the third attempt to breach 70500 was on lower volume, with stop loss set above 71000. Held it for three days and took profit at 69300 on Thursday. This execution was solid.

Weekly summary to start:
BTC short at 69500 → ✅ +1.8R, risk-reward ratio 1:2.3
ETH long at 3680 → ✅ +1.2R, risk-reward ratio 1:1.8
SOL short 172 → ❌ -1R, risk-reward ratio 1:2.5
BTC long 70200 → ❌ -1R, risk-reward ratio 1:3
PEPE short → ✅ +0.6R, risk-reward ratio 1:1.5
Total profit/loss: +1.6R. Win rate 60%. Outperformed the market, but the second BTC long was the dumbest trade of the week; more details below.
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BTC long at 70200: textbook fake breakout
The logic behind this trade: BTC consolidated in the 69500-70500 range for three days, then broke out with volume on Wednesday night at 70200. I chased it, placing a stop-loss at 69800 and targeting 71500. Risk-reward ratio 1:3, seemed like a good deal.