CPI is done, and BTC is still stuck in the 89k-93k range. The next real event that could break this balance is the FOMC tomorrow morning.
The FOMC is different from CPI—CPI is about betting on numbers, while the FOMC is about betting on sentiment. A single shift in Powell's wording can have a bigger impact than the two decimal points in CPI. So, managing positions before and after the FOMC is not just about guessing direction; it's about controlling the probability of getting swept out.
My game plan is divided into three phases:
① Before the FOMC (today) → Reduce to 30% position. No naked trading and no heavy positions. The long positions I’m holding are my base, with a stop-loss set at 87k. Not shorting, because there are too many bear traps after the rate decision.
② When the decision is announced (2:00 AM) → Don't jump in on the first wave. After the FOMC announcement, there's a high chance of a two-way spike within 15 minutes, so placing limit orders is safer than chasing. I've set limit orders at 87k and 95k; if it hits, I’ll scoop it up, if not, I’ll wait.
③ The day after the decision (Friday) → Watch the daily close before deciding. If it breaks 93k with volume and holds the daily, I’ll increase my position to 50%. If it drops back into the range or shows low volume, I’ll stay at 30% and observe.
Summary: The FOMC isn't about getting rich quick; it's about staying in the game. Position management comes first, directional judgment second.