Last week, BTC traded sideways in the 68800-70500 range for a whole week, bouncing up and down without breaking through. Today is Monday, and the range has been in play for 8 days; the breakout window is getting closer.
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At this point in the range, there are several key signals.
1) Volume contraction and sideways action. Since last Wednesday, BTC's 4H volume has been continuously shrinking. A volume drop at the end of a consolidation phase is a classic accumulation pattern—once the direction is set, the momentum won’t be small.
2) ETH leading the charge. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has stabilized around 0.054, with ETH showing strength between 3750-3850 from last Friday to the weekend. If ETH breaks out first, BTC is likely to follow suit.
3) On the macro front, this Wednesday we have CPI, and Thursday is FOMC. Data releases typically act as catalysts for directional choices.
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My strategy for this week
BTC:
• Break above 70500 confirmed (4H close holds), go long, first target 72000, second target 73500
• Break below 68800 confirmed, go short, target 67500 → 66500
• No entries within the range. Don't try to high sell and low buy within the eighth day’s range—this week, either stay inactive or make significant moves.
ETH:
• Currently holding ETH long position, stop loss at 3680
• If it breaks 3880, add to position, target 4000
• If ETH/BTC rate breaks 0.055, I will add another position
Altcoins:
• Continuing to observe. If BTC doesn't show direction, altcoin gains are all false breakouts. Several altcoins surged 15% last week only to drop back, and those who chased are now stuck.
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The core of this week can be summed up in one sentence: wait for direction, not price.
Chasing positions after the direction is established is way safer than preemptively setting traps—because once there's a false breakout, positions in the range will get liquidated back and forth. The eighth day's range isn't worth betting on, but it's worth waiting for with full effort.
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Risk warning: The above is my personal trading plan and views, not investment advice. Trade with stop losses and control your position size.