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📉 BTCUSDT 4H Analysis — Trend Still Weak, Bounce is Technical
BTC is trading around 86.7K, showing a small relief bounce — but nothing confirms a strong reversal yet.
🔹 Trend Structure
BTC is still below the falling 4H trendline, meaning macro momentum remains bearish.
Price recently rejected from the MA25 (pink) and MA99 (purple) — clear sign sellers are still in control.
The breakdown from 91.3K → 80.6K is still dominant.
🔹 Moving Averages
MA7 = 85.9K → price is slightly above it, showing a temporary bounce.
MA25 & MA99 = ~89.5K → both acting as heavy resistance.
Until BTC closes above 89.5K, no real trend reversal.
🔹 Indicators
MACD
MACD is deep in bearish territory, histogram red.
Momentum is slowing slightly but still bearish — the bounce is reactionary, not reversal.
RSI (6) – 42
RSI recovering from oversold levels.
Neutral zone → room for both upside or another leg down.
KDJ (Stochastics)
K = 26, D = 23 → oversold region bounce.
Early sign of recovery but no continuation confirmation yet.
OBV
Strong downward slope.
Confirms distribution, not accumulation. Buyers are not stepping in strongly yet.
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🎯 Key Levels
Resistance
89.5K–90K (Major) → MA25 + MA99 cluster
91.3K → previous breakdown point
This zone is extremely important — if BTC can't reclaim it, downside continues.
Support
84.2K–85K (minor short-term support)
80.6K (major swing low)
If BTC loses 80.6K → next major support sits around 78.5K.
