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TVBee
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Where's the flaw in the BTC drop to 35000?
┈➤ Carving the boat to seek the sword
Some big players firmly believe BTC will drop to 35000. Brother Bee speculates that this logic is based on BTC dropping around 80% from its peak each cycle.
From 2022 to 2026, BTC rose from 15000 to 126000, gaining 111000.
An 80% retracement would put it at 88800, meaning 126000 - 88800 = 37200.
┈➤ Where's the flaw
If we're carving the boat to seek the sword, then BTC's peak rise should also follow some pattern.
╰✦ BTC's peak didn’t meet expectations
For 2026, there are two market expectations for BTC's peak: the optimistic view is 19000, while some believe it could hit 140000, but very few think it will reach 120000.
In other words, BTC might not have risen to the peak we’re carving the boat for.
MVRV shows that in the last three bull markets, a line can be drawn, but the peak in 2026 is far from that line, indicating BTC hasn't hit the expected peak we’re carving for.
If it didn’t follow the carving strategy on the way up, why follow it on the way down?
┈➤ Reasons for BTC's unsatisfactory peak
The unsatisfactory peak of BTC can also be explained. One reason, similar to the absence of altcoins, is the constraints from macro liquidity.
If there hadn’t been tariffs from Trump, the US CPI might have already decreased by 2025, and the Fed could have started a series of rate cuts in 2025, making liquidity less tight, potentially allowing BTC's peak to be a bit higher.
Don’t bring up US stocks, as they have earnings from listed companies to consider.
And don’t say M2 is massive, because in a speculative market like crypto, what we need is the growth rate of M2 to create liquidity overflow. But 2025 clearly isn’t looking ideal.
The chart shows that the annual growth rate of M2 in 2025 is at a historical low, similar to 2018, clearly lower than 2017, and totally incomparable to 2021.
┈➤ Speculative capital flow
Looking at the 80% retracement logic from the opposite angle, 20% are steadfast investors.
The other 80% are speculative funds.
Speculative funds not only flow out during bear markets, but the rise during bull markets also comes from the inflow of speculative funds.
As previously analyzed, the reason for this cycle's unsatisfactory BTC peak is macro liquidity. And the impact of macro liquidity on BTC investment and speculation is clearly greater for the latter.
So, for this round in 2025, with less speculative capital inflow, will there still be an outflow of 80%?
┈➤ Carving the boat to seek the sword
Some big players firmly believe BTC will drop to 35000. Brother Bee speculates that this logic is based on BTC dropping around 80% from its peak each cycle.
From 2022 to 2026, BTC rose from 15000 to 126000, gaining 111000.
An 80% retracement would put it at 88800, meaning 126000 - 88800 = 37200.
┈➤ Where's the flaw
If we're carving the boat to seek the sword, then BTC's peak rise should also follow some pattern.
╰✦ BTC's peak didn’t meet expectations
For 2026, there are two market expectations for BTC's peak: the optimistic view is 19000, while some believe it could hit 140000, but very few think it will reach 120000.
In other words, BTC might not have risen to the peak we’re carving the boat for.
MVRV shows that in the last three bull markets, a line can be drawn, but the peak in 2026 is far from that line, indicating BTC hasn't hit the expected peak we’re carving for.
If it didn’t follow the carving strategy on the way up, why follow it on the way down?
┈➤ Reasons for BTC's unsatisfactory peak
The unsatisfactory peak of BTC can also be explained. One reason, similar to the absence of altcoins, is the constraints from macro liquidity.
If there hadn’t been tariffs from Trump, the US CPI might have already decreased by 2025, and the Fed could have started a series of rate cuts in 2025, making liquidity less tight, potentially allowing BTC's peak to be a bit higher.
Don’t bring up US stocks, as they have earnings from listed companies to consider.
And don’t say M2 is massive, because in a speculative market like crypto, what we need is the growth rate of M2 to create liquidity overflow. But 2025 clearly isn’t looking ideal.
The chart shows that the annual growth rate of M2 in 2025 is at a historical low, similar to 2018, clearly lower than 2017, and totally incomparable to 2021.
┈➤ Speculative capital flow
Looking at the 80% retracement logic from the opposite angle, 20% are steadfast investors.
The other 80% are speculative funds.
Speculative funds not only flow out during bear markets, but the rise during bull markets also comes from the inflow of speculative funds.
As previously analyzed, the reason for this cycle's unsatisfactory BTC peak is macro liquidity. And the impact of macro liquidity on BTC investment and speculation is clearly greater for the latter.
So, for this round in 2025, with less speculative capital inflow, will there still be an outflow of 80%?