When MSTR's stock price was halved from its historical high, and the floating profit from Bitcoin holdings evaporated by tens of billions, the four 'death postures' revealed by Jinshi News are by no means alarmist! As an analyst who has experienced three rounds of bull and bear markets in the crypto space, today I will use hard data to dissect the truth: this is not merely a correlation of coin prices, but a multi-dimensional strangulation, hiding fatal traps that all investors must be vigilant about!
1. The Cruel Truth of the Four Major Death Endings (Data Speaks)
Posture One: Take Advantage of the Fire - A Dual Hunt of Short Sellers and Index De-Listing
The MSCI de-listing warning is by no means a farce! According to JPMorgan's calculations, if ultimately excluded from the index, it will trigger a passive fund outflow of 2.8 billion to 11.6 billion USD. More critically, the current mNAV has dropped to 1.14 (close to breaking the 1 red line), short sellers are taking advantage of this to increase their positions, and the stock price plummeted by 7.9% in a single day, marking the largest drop in a year. This is precisely the classic short-selling script of 'taking your life when you are sick.'
Method Two: Debt collection is imminent — A liquidity crisis with 4.2 billion in debt looming
Don't be deceived by the '1.4 billion reserve'! The company's long-term debt is as high as 4.2 billion USD, and it relies on preferred stock financing for survival. The key hidden danger is: if Bitcoin falls to 80,000 USD, it will trigger 3.2 billion in unrealized losses, while the current coin price has already broken through the 86,000 mark. The CEO has explicitly stated, 'If mNAV drops below 1, we will sell Bitcoin to repay debts' — once 650,000 holdings (average cost of 74,436 USD) are sold, it will not only crash the coin price but also trigger a chain liquidation.
Method Three: Kill the heart — Class action lawsuits and accounting fraud suspicions
This class action lawsuit strikes at the heart! The company is accused of exaggerating Bitcoin profits and delaying the disclosure of a 5.91 billion loss under new accounting standards. The ASU2023-08 standard mandates measuring Bitcoin at fair value, meaning that for every 10% drop in price, the financial report will directly reflect massive losses. This 'transparent loss' is completely destroying market confidence, which is more deadly than a simple drop in stock price.
Method Four: Close the door and beat the dog — liquidity exhaustion after the dilution policy reversal
Saylor's policy flip is nothing short of a disaster! Previously promising 'no new shares will be issued if mNAV is below 2.5 times,' he now allows low multiples to issue shares for financing, directly leading to shareholder equity dilution and the stock price dropping to a four-month low. Even more frightening is that the company's software business cash flow cannot cover dividends, entirely relying on a cycle of 'issue shares to buy coins' for survival. Once the financing channel is cut off, it will lead to a disastrous end.
2. Three iron rules to avoid pitfalls (lessons learned from bloodshed)
Stay away from 'leveraged Bitcoin assets': MSTR essentially acts as a leveraged BTC shadow stock, with its decline often 1.5-2 times that of Bitcoin. The current market value fluctuations of the 56 billion Bitcoin holdings are enough to drag down the entire company.
Focus on two core indicators: mNAV below 1.2 is a high-risk zone (currently at 1.14 on the line), and if the Bitcoin price falls below 74,000 (the company's average cost), it will trigger systemic risk, necessitating a hard stop-loss.
Beware of 'faith-based traps': Saylor's 'never sell' stance has long since wavered, and the company's business model has devolved from 'Bitcoin faith' to a 'financing game.' Such assets, overly reliant on a single asset, should not be touched, no matter how attractive the premium.
3. Future trend predictions (strong personal opinion)
Short-term (1-3 months): 80% probability of breaking down
Multiple negative factors have yet to materialize: MSCI's final decision will be announced in January next year, the class action lawsuit continues to ferment, and if Bitcoin falls below 80,000, it will trigger a chain reaction. More critically, the current stock price still has a 14% premium compared to the value of Bitcoin holdings, and this 'faith premium' is quickly evaporating, with the target price likely testing the $150 support level.
Long-term (6-12 months): Either rebirth or zeroing out
There are only two possibilities: either Bitcoin returns to above 110,000, restarting the company's financing cycle; or debt maturity + selling Bitcoin triggers a double whammy of 'stock price - coin price.' However, from the debt sheet, there is no concentrated repayment pressure before 2027, and the short-term explosion probability is low, more a case of 'slow knife slicing flesh.'
Epilogue: The fate of palace intrigue and the ultimate revelation
The strategic divergence between Saylor and the management (buying vs selling), and the conflict of interest between shareholders and creditors are fundamentally the inherent flaws of the 'crypto asset + publicly listed company' model. This crisis has taught all investors in the crypto space a lesson: 'faith-based assets' without cash flow support are ultimately castles in the air.
