Crash alert sounded: Japan's 80% interest rate hike probability ignites a $19 trillion 'bomb'! Do you still dare to buy the dip in BTC?
This morning, BTC suddenly fell below 83000, and you thought it was just a normal adjustment? I broke into a cold sweat staring at the screen—just because of one number: 80%. The market is betting wildly on the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike in December, with the probability skyrocketing to 80%, and even reaching 90% in January! This is not just an interest rate hike; it directly ignites the fuse for the global $19 trillion yen carry trade!
For global traders, this awakens painful memories of Christmas 2022. At that time, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly adjusted its yield curve control (YCC) policy in the December meeting, raising the upper limit of the 10-year government bond yield from 0.25% to 0.5%, triggering violent turbulence in global markets.
Considering that December 19 is just before the Christmas holiday, market liquidity is usually at an annual low, and any unexpected tightening of policy could be amplified in a weak liquidity environment, triggering a new round of 'carry trade disaster'.
For decades, the nearly zero-interest yen has been borrowed and exchanged for dollars to flood into U.S. stocks and the crypto market. Once Japan raises interest rates, massive funds will instantly flow back out. The result? BTC is the first to suffer. Data doesn’t lie: BTC's monthly decline exceeds 20%, ETF outflows are $3.5 billion, over 400 million liquidated in a single night… the market is as fragile as paper.
Don’t forget about the Federal Reserve! Powell is silent tonight about policy, which is even scarier— the quiet period is often the calm before the storm. If Japan tightens and the U.S. does not loosen, BTC will face a 'double whammy'.
Now look at BNB, it’s heartbreaking. The new official Lina parachuted in as BSC growth director, but the retail investors are almost gone, what is there to grow? On-chain projects have fallen below CZ's buying price, and the vulgar penguin has long become a 'fallen penguin'. But don’t panic, the most anxious are not you—it’s the new officials and exchanges. Market rescue? Maybe it's already on the way.
Remember: Carry trade liquidation is just a short-term impact, not the end of the world. After Japan's interest rate hike in 2024, BTC will hit a new high within three months. Key points to watch: December’s Bank of Japan meeting, Federal Reserve dot plot. Don’t rush to go all in, manage your positions well, and survive to catch the next wave of rebound.
So, I ask you now—
