I was out on a business trip last Friday and over the weekend, doing my old gig shooting ads, which messed with the trading grind, haha.
1. Macro Influences
Last week's four major bearish factors
1. MicroStrategy selling their coins has greatly influenced market sentiment; both institutions and retail traders are rushing to offload their assets.
—— Ultimately reflected on the candlestick chart, the weekly drop was 15,000 points!
2. Japan's Rate Hike Expectations vs. Fed's Rate Hike Expectations
—— A Japanese rate hike is pretty much a done deal, but I still believe the Fed won't hike or cut rates, at least maintaining the status quo until June. I previously predicted that rates might stay unchanged from June to September, but they'll first taper their balance sheet, then possibly restart rate cuts in October or after 2027. This might be what Kashkari calls the 'rate cut tapering' strategy...
3. The situation in the Middle East is still poorly managed.
—— It used to be that the US was strong, now Iran is taking the lead. With the Revolutionary Guard's consolidation of power, Iran's stance is now 'if you're not happy, just fight.' Either negotiate with me or... The US has really been losing for the last half year. The situation in the Middle East is mostly just an emotional play now; it doesn’t have the same impact as before, maybe affecting volatility by 1-2k points tops (but while I’m writing this, Iran suddenly fired at Israel; no clue what's going on, probably doesn’t want Trump and Netanyahu to escape easily... or maybe the conditions just can’t be negotiated).
4. US stocks appear to have peaked temporarily + Dongda's State Council is restricting overseas investments.
—— Nobody knows when US stocks will crash, the Nasdaq dropped directly by 5% on Friday! Every time Dongda starts to limit investments, there tends to be some action—
Next, we need to keep an eye on 👇
1. US CPI & PPI data—if it meets expectations, the impact is minimal; if it's below expectations, it's bullish; if it's above expectations, it's bearish (definitely still high, unless adjusted down).
2. June 12th is SpaceX's listing situation.
3. June 16th is the Bank of Japan's rate meeting + June 17th is the Fed's rate meeting, chaired by Waller.
Two, Data
1. I roughly checked the liquidation data; since June 1st, long positions worth around 5 billion USD have been liquidated, completely dominated by bears in the market.
2. Last week, the long-short ratio peaked at around 2.3 to 1; it’s truly wild! People are getting bolder as prices drop!
3. In terms of daily chart metrics and open interest, when it dipped to 59K, many retail traders were chasing shorts. At key levels, some spot buying came in, triggering a quick rebound; some were short covering while others got wrecked chasing shorts.
4. In the last two weeks, BTC ETF had a net outflow of -3.2028 billion USD!
Three, Technical Analysis
To put it simply, so far, there hasn’t been a strong rebound signal; it’s all weak bounces.
The first week of June has dropped this much; the monthly candle for June is looking like a 100% bearish.
And right now, we can’t confirm that 59130 is the lowest point of the month.
Focus on how things will move mid-month; as long as it doesn't hold above 64600–65000.
Since the rebound that peaked on June 7th, it hit the 4H EMA20 resistance at 62960 and hasn't managed to break through since.
Of course, now at 8 a.m. it looks like it's heading down again; the market is still leveraging some news from Yi to push prices down, but that doesn't necessarily mean the short-term trend is definitely down.
From MACD, KDJ, and RSI perspectives, there’s serious overselling on a larger scale, so in this situation, we generally expect a prolonged oscillation repair. The strength will depend on whether there’s actual buying support or heavy selling pressure.
Four, Summary
As of now, it might just be forming a daily bottom, potentially oscillating to create a daily rebound top, like bouncing back to 64, maybe even 66 if it’s strong.
In any case, the best strategy right now is to set stop-loss shorts at key resistance zones while building long-term spot positions or accumulating coins at relatively low levels.
Still holding that judgment; I don't think 59130 is the solid bottom for this bear market, as the macro outlook doesn't support it for now.
From a technical perspective, I need to see at least a weekly bottom before discussing whether we’ve hit the bottom.
But that doesn’t stop me from building long-term spot positions starting with 5s and 6s because nobody can buy at the lowest point; both highs and lows are relative.
At the right time, even floating losses can feel good!
Need to seriously study secondary investment research and trading; you can focus on contacting m-66 m-68.
Dedicated training covering international financial analysis, crypto research, trading techniques, position management, trading strategies, and risk control.