Clouds loom over PIPPIN
1. Event overview
On December 2, 2025, the blockchain analysis platform Bubblemaps exposed suspected insider manipulation of the PIPPIN token (meme coin on the Solana chain) on the X platform. As of December 3, this incident continues to ferment without team responses or clarifications.
The report shows that suspected insiders control 50% of the total supply through affiliated wallets, valued at about $120 million.
Specifically, 50 highly correlated wallets obtained similar SOL funds from the HTX exchange in a short period (no prior on-chain activity), bulk purchasing $19 million worth of PIPPIN tokens; another 26 addresses withdrew $96 million worth of tokens from the Gate exchange in the past two months, accounting for 44% of the total supply, with withdrawal peaks concentrated on October 24 and November 23. These wallets are mostly 'fresh' fund injection addresses and align closely with the recent price pump.
PIPPIN's history is filled with warnings: in 2024, an AI-generated pony image by VC Yohei Nakajima triggered the community token issuance. Following Yohei's endorsement, it briefly surged to a $330 million FDV but quickly collapsed by 90%.
Entering 2025, the project has been almost silent, with no major news or team updates (no posts on X for six months), yet the price has surged 10 times in the past two weeks, with market cap skyrocketing from $20 million to $220 million.
This pump without fundamental support, combined with insider concentrated holdings, is highly similar to the typical precursors of a 'rug pull'. Bubblemaps has submitted this case to the Intel Desk platform, calling for the community to vote to advance the investigation.
As of December 3, market sentiment has turned to panic, with frequent 'time bomb' warnings and delisting calls on X.
2. On-chain data analysis
Bubblemaps' Bubblemap visualization exposed the extreme concentration of PIPPIN holding patterns: the funding paths of 50 purchasing wallets are highly coordinated (tight HTX funding windows, similar SOL amounts, no historical activity), which is far from retail behavior and resembles bulk accumulation by a single entity for subsequent manipulation.
Similarly, 44% of the supply from 26 Gate withdrawal addresses is concentrated on specific dates, with a high proportion of new wallets, suggesting a premeditated selling mechanism.
These patterns are consistent with typical market manipulation: insider low-price accumulation, creating FOMO, and then centralized selling, leaving retail investors with significant losses.
The supply concentration exceeds 50% (approximately 500 million tokens), which is common among meme coins. However, combined with the recent pump and historical 90% collapse, it amplifies the risk of a 'dead cat bounce'.
On-chain data shows no significant new inflows in the past two weeks, only maintaining through leverage squeeze, and any small-scale insider selling could trigger a chain collapse.
Overall, this type of highly coordinated wallet cluster indicates a liquidity trap, which, once triggered, may cause the price to plummet instantly.
3. Market performance
As of December 3, 2025, the price of PIPPIN hovers in the range of $0.21-$0.22, with a 24-hour increase of about 27%-29%, a 7-day increase of over 214%, a market cap of about $220 million, and a 24-hour trading volume of $130 million.
However, these price increases are built on an extremely fragile foundation: the RSI indicator has reached 92 (extremely overbought), and while the MACD is positive, the increase in upper shadows suggests momentum is about to exhaust.
While the open interest in the derivatives market has risen by 34% (reaching $56.5 million), the funding rate continues to be negative (-0.27% to -0.50%), with the risk of long positions liquidating under short dominance (24-hour long position liquidation of $1.3 million vs. short position of $3.8 million).
Historical price review shows PIPPIN repeatedly experiences 'pump and collapse':
From a peak of $0.3186 in 2024, the price plummeted to a low of $0.0055 in 2025. Recently pumped from $0.02 to $0.22, but the trading volume relies on leverage rather than organic demand.
Once insider selling starts, it is expected to test the support at $0.114-$0.125, subsequently collapsing to $0.055-$0.061 (September low), with potential losses of 30%-50%.
4. Community and market response
Bubblemaps' post has garnered widespread attention, triggering significant panic: users are calling out, 'Insiders control 50% of the supply, worth $120 million, this is a time bomb,' urging exchanges like Binance to delist PIPPIN and even blacklist HTX and Gate.
"Short-term squeeze or continuation is possible, but the overbought RSI + supply unlock will trigger a collapse," another trader shared a case of realizing profits of $3.65 million, reinforcing the narrative of 'smart money fleeing'.
Chinese media such as ChainCatcher have reposted, emphasizing that the manipulation scale exceeds $115 million, with overall sentiment shifting from FOMO to regulatory concerns, similar to multiple meme coin manipulation cases in 2024.
Community feedback indicates that the lack of team responses exacerbates distrust: Yohei Nakajima has not spoken out, project X’s account has been silent for six months, and retail investors are beginning to reflect on 'buy high, sell low'.
The likelihood of regulatory intervention is increasing. If the SEC or CFTC follows up, PIPPIN may face a mandatory investigation, further crushing liquidity.
5. Forecast of subsequent trends
Given the concentrated insider holdings, overbought signals, and historical collapse patterns, PIPPIN's trend is highly pessimistic. Both short-term (until 2025-12-15) and medium to long term (end of 2025) face downward pressure, with the pump possibly being the last 'dead cat bounce'.
Short-term (until 2025-12-15)
The probability of insider selling triggering is high: the negative funding rate attracts shorts, and combined with an increase in upper shadows, a 10%-20% correction is expected after momentum exhausts, accelerating the drop below $0.175-$0.195 (25EMA support) towards $0.114-$0.125.
If the Bubblemaps investigation advances or exchanges respond to delisting calls, the price could plunge to $0.055-$0.09, resulting in a loss of 30%-50%.
Key monitoring: An increase in large on-chain transfers or sharp reduction in OI will confirm the start of the collapse. Without team clarifications, FOMO retail panic selling will amplify the decline.
Medium to long term (end of 2025)
As a non-utility meme coin, PIPPIN lacks sustainable catalysts, with pessimism dominating amidst forecasting discrepancies:
CoinCodex predicts a 20.89% drop by the end of the year to $0.1679;
WalletInvestor forecasts as low as $0.1436;
LiteFinance/TradingBeasts average at $0.1538 (-30%).
Concentrated supply + regulatory risks will erode market value, potentially shrinking to below $50 million, even below $0.10.
The probability of a historical 90% collapse repeating is high. If the community declines or Yohei remains silent permanently, it may ultimately go to zero.
Risk warning: Under high volatility, any long positions face total loss risk. It is advisable to set a stop-loss below $0.175 to avoid chasing highs.
6. Conclusion and recommendations
Bubblemaps report reveals the deep manipulation risks of PIPPIN. The recent 10x increase is actually an insider pump disguised, and the overbought + concentrated supply signals an imminent collapse.
Short-term selling waves, medium-term regulatory pressures, and long-term lack of fundamentals will drag the price back to the lows.
Investors should view this as a high-risk trap, prioritizing risk avoidance: monitor on-chain selling signals and derivatives liquidation data, with small positions in short or wait-and-see.
Not investment advice; such meme coins are essentially zero-sum games, and retail investors are likely to become cannon fodder.
