Tonight, the Fusaka upgrade is here, are you ready for a big explosion?

Ethereum (ETH) has recently reestablished itself above the $3000 mark, and Fusaka is driving a general recovery in the cryptocurrency market, with the total market capitalization climbing to approximately $3.2 trillion. Multiple factors are driving this wave of increase, with significant changes in market sentiment and capital flows.

Core Driver Analysis

1. Expectations of Technical Upgrades

The upcoming Fusaka upgrade for Ethereum has become a key catalyst. This upgrade plans to optimize the Gas fee mechanism and enhance Layer 2 network performance, and the market generally believes this will strengthen the competitiveness of the Ethereum ecosystem. On-chain data shows that over 150,000 ETH have been transferred from exchanges to cold wallets in the past week, reflecting investors' confidence in the value capture ability post-upgrade.

2. Short Squeeze Effect

The price of Bitcoin breaking above $93,000 triggered a large-scale short liquidation. According to the BRN research report, approximately $430 million in BTC short positions were forcibly liquidated, causing a chain reaction affecting mainstream assets like Ethereum. Research director Timothy Misir pointed out that leverage liquidations in the derivatives market often amplify short-term price fluctuations, and this round of increase has technical buying pressure as a contributing factor.

3. Continued Capital Inflow

The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has achieved net inflows for five consecutive trading days, accumulating about $58.5 million. BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day net inflow of $24 million, indicating that institutional investors still maintain a willingness to allocate even amid price fluctuations. The structure of capital inflow shows that, apart from Bitcoin, about 12% of funds are indirectly flowing into Ethereum ecosystem-related products.

Potential Risk Alerts

- The actual effects of the Fusaka upgrade need to be observed; historical data shows that the volatility of ETH prices increases by an average of 58% within 30 days after significant upgrades;

- The proportion of long positions in the derivatives market has risen to 67%, and extreme positions can easily trigger a correction;

- The Federal Reserve's July interest rate decision is approaching, and if hawkish signals are released, it may impact risk assets.

The current market presents a complex pattern where "optimism in news" coexists with "overbought technicals". Investors are advised to pay attention to the support level of $2,850 for Ethereum and the psychological threshold of $90,000 for Bitcoin. Changes in exchange reserves and ETF fund flows can serve as short-term sentiment indicators. #ETH走势分析 , #eth升级