1. Market Overview

Bitcoin is currently fluctuating between $91k and $92k, having fallen nearly 30% from the historical high of $126k in October. This decline was mainly caused by ETF fund outflows, continuous liquidations of leveraged longs, and an overall cooling of risk assets.

2. Technical Analysis

• Recent Trends: The 24-hour low was around $86k, briefly dipping to approximately $84k before quickly rebounding. The current price has risen back above $91k, entering a 'repair period after a sharp decline.'

• Key Support: Both bulls and bears in the market are watching the $82k–$84k support zone. If it is effectively broken, it will open up new downward space.

3. Structural division

• Upper pressure zone ($95k–$100k): This area is a dense trading zone and psychological barrier before the previous decline. If the short-term wants to regain strength, it must at least stand above $95k again.

• Central oscillation zone ($88k–$95k): The current price is stuck in this range, which belongs to the recovery box after a sharp decline.

• Key support zone ($82k–$84k): A position that multiple institutions are paying close attention to. If effectively broken, the downside space will be forced to reprice.

4. Interpretation of news

• Capital flow: ETFs have seen billions of dollars in net outflows, indicating that institutions are reducing risk exposure in the short term.

• Market sentiment: In the last round of sharp declines, approximately $1 billion in leveraged long positions across the network were liquidated, which had a significant impact on sentiment. At the same time, some mining companies and Bitcoin-related stocks plummeted, compounded by weakening risk sentiment in traditional markets.

• Essential judgment: This is not simply a technical correction, but a whole process of deleveraging and risk cooling.

5. Short-term expectations (next 12–24 hours)

Combining price and news, it is expected to likely maintain oscillation in the $88k–$95k range, showing a weak recovery pattern.

• If there are no new positive factors in the US stock market or macro environment, it will be difficult to pull back to $100k in one go.

• If it falls to around $86k again with increased volume, it is necessary to closely observe the support strength around $84k.

• The real directional choice is more likely to occur after the subsequent macro data or policy implementation this week.

6. Operating ideas and suggestions

The current market is not suitable for high-frequency chasing and cutting losses; sharp rises and falls are both likely to lead to losses.

• Short-term trading: It is not advisable to chase long positions near the upper limit of the pressure zone ($95k area); near the lower limit ($86k–$88k), one may consider betting on a rebound, but strict stop-loss settings must be enforced.

• Medium to long-term holding: Such a large drawdown accompanied by panic volume is, on the contrary, a stage to lower the holding cost. Compared to predicting short-term ups and downs, a dollar-cost averaging strategy is more suitable.

7. Summary

Currently, BTC resembles a 'risk repricing' after experiencing a major correction. The upper space depends on when the funds re-enter the market, while the downside risk looks at whether $82k–$84k holds. During this period, the market's main tone is a game of emotion and patience.

Tonight leans towards 'oscillation recovery, direction uncertain'. It is recommended that investors adjust their pace and not blindly speculate on the rise and fall of a single K-line.