In the past 13 years, whenever Bitcoin reached a significant peak, the same murderer has always been behind it—the US ISM manufacturing index.
Never misses, all die under the three cuts.
The first cut: in December 2017, the price peaked at twenty thousand dollars.
ISM surged to 60.8 a few months ago, and then it continuously went down, with Bitcoin being cut down to just over three thousand in a year.
The second cut: in November 2021, the price peaked at sixty-nine thousand.
ISM had already reached 63.4 in July 2021 (the second highest in history), and then it fell all the way back, with Bitcoin being cut down to sixteen thousand in a year.
The third cut: in November 2022, sixteen thousand was the desperate bottom.
ISM is struggling between 46 and 49, the Federal Reserve has started to cut interest rates, and only then could Bitcoin catch its breath.
The rules are simple to the point of cruelty:
ISM surges → peaks and falls back → Bitcoin must cool down within three to nine months.
The reverse is also true:
As long as ISM is still climbing or staying at a high level, the bull market cannot die.
It is now December 4, 2025, and the latest ISM manufacturing index has just been released: 48.2
Fifty-eight is far from the historical killing zone; it is not just a gap of one hundred eighty thousand miles, it is fundamentally a difference of half a life.
In this round, the murderer was absurdly late for the first time.
Why is this time completely different? Five most glaring facts:
1. The economy is not hot at all.
In the past two major peaks, ISM had already soared above 60, like a high fever. Now the highest is only 52.5, still in the low-grade fever stage, and there is no need for fever-reducing medicine.
2. The Federal Reserve is still injecting liquidity.
In the past, at this time, they would have been hammering people with interest rate hikes, but now they are still by the side continuing to turn on the faucet, and the interest rate cuts are not over yet, tapering is almost called off.
3. Retail investors haven't fired a single bullet.
The scenes like 'my mom is asking how to buy Bitcoin' seen in 2017 and 2021 have not appeared even once. Now, those buying coins are still institutional investors in suits, and retail investors haven't even warmed up.
4. The US government prints money until its hands are sore.
The fiscal deficit for FY 2025 is expected to exceed 6% of GDP, and with more tariff wars to come, there is so much money that even the central bank is getting a headache looking at it, and they dare not absorb it.
5. The community is still coldly mocking.
Twitter is full of comments like 'this is just a rebound' and 'over 100,000 is the peak', completely different from the collective madness of 'one million next year' in 2021.
In plain terms, in the past three rounds, retail investors were running around with gasoline, this time institutions are slowly refilling with tankers.
The fire has not really started yet, the baton has not been passed.
In the next 24 months, the most likely three paths are:
1. The most likely script: the bull market directly lengthens and thickens.
ISM will only slowly climb to 57 to 59 in the second half of 2026 and then start to fall back, while Bitcoin will say goodbye in the range of 200,000 to 280,000.
2. Black swan script: cut in advance.
If tariffs hit too hard and energy issues arise again, ISM could directly fall below 44 in the first half of 2026, and Bitcoin could cool down to 150,000 to 200,000 in advance.
3. Dream script: the cycle is directly shattered.
The United States has completely fallen into a new normal of high deficits and high inflation, with ISM firmly standing above 55 for a long time, Bitcoin breaking through 350,000, and the halving cycle becoming a historical joke.
The last sentence is a great truth:
Those who shout 'peak' now are always the same group as those who shouted '40,000 is the peak' in March 2021. They only scream at the K-line but never look up at ISM.🤔
Remember this sentence:
As long as ISM does not rise above 58 and does not fall for three consecutive months, just hold on, all other voices are nonsense. The real knife does not drop after the price goes crazy; it is ISM that turns its face first, and Bitcoin follows it down.
The knife is still being sharpened, and the fire has not yet burned to its peak.
Don't scare yourself first, the good show is yet to come.🔥🔥🚀🚀
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