When the central bank's divergence appears, #Bitcoin will definitely be hit hard in the crossfire.

The rebound starting from Bitcoin's drop to 81111 is quite cute, but we are still below the 50MA, which means the bears have complete control.

The market has already digested the Fed's interest rate cut of 25 basis points in December, but if Japan really raises rates on December 19, I don't know how the market will react then?

Japan's long-term ultra-low interest rates (benchmark 0.5%) are the core of global carry trades.

Investors borrow cheap yen to invest in high-yield assets (such as U.S. Treasuries, stocks, and cryptocurrencies).

The expectation of rate hikes has led to the appreciation of the yen (USD/JPY falling below 155), forcing traders to close positions: selling risk assets to get back yen.

Asian liquidity is tightening, and leveraged positions are being liquidated.

But there is also an interesting piece of news.

The end of the rate hike marks the conclusion of the "cheap yen era," but the scale of the stimulus plan is huge (21.3 trillion yen, the largest since the pandemic), which may inject new funds. The Japanese Financial Services Agency has also lowered the crypto tax from 55% to 20%, attracting capital inflows.

Many people in the market are bullish at high levels and bearish at low levels.

When the market doesn't fall, they are still shouting for 60,000.

When it rises to 125,000, they shout for 200,000.

In fact, anyone calling out FOMO is actually going against the reality.

The surge in trading volume to 19M on December 4 tells me that institutions are actually accumulating at these levels. If we can hold 86k after the Bank of Japan's decision, we might really see a violent rebound back to the 107k position.

Currently, at mid-December, I feel the volatility is a bit large, and the market should still have one more rally before a drop in response to the yen rate hike, ultimately choosing a direction to rise.

(For the next few days, I definitely feel bullish and will go long)

I'll write this little script for now, anyway, I'm not mainstream.

Position: Focus on the convergence of major support levels, if it breaks below 82k, prepare for a large entry 🤺