U.S. private sector employment data for November surprised negatively, with a decrease of 32,000 jobs, marking the largest decline since March 2023. Coupled with the continuous contraction in the ISM non-manufacturing PMI employment component, clear signals of a cooling labor market emerged. This data directly raised the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for next week to 89%, while major investment banks like Bank of America have clearly predicted a 25 basis point cut in December. Under dovish expectations, the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields weakened, reducing the holding cost of gold, with London gold briefly surging to 4241.60 dollars per ounce.
However, short-term profit-taking concentrated with the sharp drop in silver dragged the gold price quickly back to around 4195 dollars.
The closing price was 4203.06 per ounce, with a slight decrease of 0.1% during the day, showing a typical 'surge and fall' fluctuation trend.
Today we need to closely monitor two major employment data points to validate market logic: at 20:30, the number of layoffs from Challenger companies in November will be released (previous value 153074), and at 21:30, the number of initial jobless claims for the week of November 29 (expected 220000, previous value 216000). If the data continues to show weakness, it will further confirm the weakening labor market, enhancing expectations for interest rate cuts, which would be positive for gold prices; conversely, it may briefly suppress upward momentum.
From a short-term perspective, gold prices are likely to maintain a high-level fluctuation of 'not falling deep, not rising fast.' The range of 4250-4170 has not broken through, making it difficult for the market to sustain a trend. If it can hold above the 4200 level and employment data negatively impacts the US dollar, gold prices may challenge the resistance at 4245-4250; once the support is lost, it will drop to key support at 4170 or even 4153.
From a medium to long-term perspective, the bullish logic for gold remains solid. On the one hand, as long as the support at 4153 holds, any pullback is a buying opportunity; on the other hand, the triple support from the fundamentals can be described as a 'golden moat': first, the consensus in the market is that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has begun, and there may be more cuts to come, which would open up upward space for gold prices; second, the global central bank's purchasing frenzy for gold remains strong, with net gold purchases in September increasing by 79% year-on-year, coupled with non-traditional buyers like Tether entering the market, continuously tightening gold supply; third, the stalled negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and the complex geopolitical situation are providing support for gold prices through safe-haven demand.
If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as expected, gold prices are likely to break through 4265, moving towards 4280 and even 4300. Goldman Sachs is optimistic about gold prices reaching 4900 by 2026; however, if the expectations for interest rate cuts fail, gold prices may significantly retreat to support levels around 4100 and 4065. Nevertheless, considering the current dovish statements from Federal Reserve officials and the macroeconomic environment, the probability of missing interest rate cuts is low, and strategically buying on dips remains the best approach in the medium to long term.