#加密市场观察

Today's focus, not fully risen, still needs to rise in the short term, at least currently there are no obvious bearish signals. Yesterday's closing was also above 93000. The daily line has completed the initial structural transformation in the short term. Now we just need to wait for a second pullback without breaking the low, forming a lower high, and then proceed with the second wave of rise. This is the ideal trading structure; be patient and wait for the adjustment.

Can we chase the highs? Not appropriate. Firstly, we are currently only in the rebound phase of a bearish trend. Once the rebound ends, we will enter the next round of bearish trend, and currently, the price is also a minor pressure level. The price may slightly rise again to a new high and then directly pull back; this possibility also exists. Therefore, the risk of chasing highs is too high, and the risk-reward ratio is poor.

In addition, both short-term strong rises or falls have vacuum gaps, which are imbalanced price areas. In most cases, the market will fill the gap to form a balance between bulls and bears. The 4-hour level gap is between 90000-87600. If the market does a second pullback, we need to pay attention to whether it can rise again after filling this level. That time will be the best opportunity for the second wave of rise; otherwise, there are only short-term trading opportunities.

The short-term is in the rectangular consolidation phase after the rise, which is a consolidation platform formed after a V reversal. It is highly likely a continuation structure, so pay attention to the support at the bottom of the platform, 92000-91600, looking bullish. Today, before reaching a new high, a pullback can be treated as a short-term long position. If it first pushes high and then falls back, then observe. The first pressure area above is at 96000; pay attention to the pullback action on the first test. The key changeover area may be at 97000-98000.

In summary, we are currently in the rebound segment of a bearish trend. The short-term rebound trend has not yet been completed, and there is still upward space. During the day, pay attention to the support at 92000-91600 looking bullish, with the target of a new high at 94200 to reduce positions, then look at 95000-96000. On the first test of 96000, try a light short. For larger areas, pay attention to 87600-98000; note the changeover area above 97000 (the time node may be after the interest rate cut).