The Meeting on December 9-10 is Now Just a Formaility, A Very Big Good News for the Market!
1. ๐ Big Jump in Probability: 87% Certainty
There is now no doubt in the market! Previously, the probability was 80%, and now it has increased to 87% that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points.
Key Certainty: This means that investors have almost accepted that a rate cut is imminent. This is very strong support for risk assets (crypto or stocks)!
2. ๐ Weak Economic Data The Biggest Justification
The main reason for this increasing certainty is the dovish (soft) signals from Fed officials and the key thingโweaker economic data:
Surprise Drop in Payrolls: November saw an unexpected decline in private payrolls. This directly means that the job market is weakening and the economy needs support.
Fed's Dilemma: When the economy starts to weaken, the Fed has no choice but to cut rates to bring growth back on track.
โ3. ๐ What Does This Mean for the Market?
This high probability means that the market has already priced in this rate cut (i.e., the market has already increased).
โPowell's Comments: Now the key thing will be Jerome Powell's press conference (on Dec 10 at 2:30 PM ET). If he indicates that there will be further cuts (dovish outlook), a big rally could happen in the market!
In your opinion, looking at the economic data, should the Fed cut by 25 basis points or 50 basis points?
โ#FedCut #FOMC #RateCut $BTC #CryptoNews
