ADP's unexpected drop boosts interest rate cut expectations, while cryptocurrency rebounds face technical pressure
In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has fluctuated and rebounded amidst the game between macroeconomic benefits and technical pressures. The US ADP employment data for November released last night unexpectedly fell sharply, reducing 32,000 jobs, which is seen by the market as a key signal of cooling in the economy and job market. This data, as the last employment clue before the Federal Reserve's December meeting, directly led to the market's expectation probability of an interest rate cut at the meeting on December 10-11 soaring to nearly 90%. The warming expectations for an interest rate cut weakened the dollar's attractiveness (the dollar index has fallen for nine consecutive days) and boosted the appeal of all risk assets, including Bitcoin. This pushed Bitcoin and Ethereum to rebound after a slight correction in the evening — Bitcoin briefly touched the $94,000 mark in the morning before retreating to around $93,000; Ethereum simultaneously climbed to the $3,200 range, presenting an overall pattern of 'positive support but limited gains.'
Macro and funds: ADP ignites rate cut expectations, funds simultaneously provide support
The core driving force behind this rebound stems from clear macroeconomic positives. The ADP employment figures released in December were significantly below market expectations, and the weak data corroborates the cooling trend in the U.S. labor market, resonating with the Federal Reserve's mention of 'increased economic downturn risks', directly raising the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December to 89%. The U.S. dollar index has slightly weakened as a result, risk appetite for assets has warmed up, and Bitcoin's anti-inflation properties as 'digital gold' have been highlighted again.
Improvements in the funding situation further strengthen rebound momentum. Bitcoin spot ETF has achieved net inflows for 5 consecutive days, and yesterday BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day net inflow of 120 million USD, with overall asset net value rebounding to 1195.87 million USD, and institutional selling pressure has been fully alleviated. Although Ethereum has shown a slight net outflow in ETF on a single day, on-chain data indicates that the institutional accumulation trend remains unchanged — whales holding more than 10,000 ETH continue to increase their positions, with 36.8 million ETH in staking status (accounting for 30.4% of total supply), forming long-term demand support for staking yield strategies.
Technical outlook: dual currency under pressure at the upper Bollinger band, overbought situation needs correction
The macroeconomic positives have not translated into a significant rally, primarily constrained by multiple technical pressures. From a common characteristic perspective, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have rebounded to the upper Bollinger band at the daily level, which is a key resistance area from previous rebounds; the 4-hour RSI and KDJ indicators are continuously in the overbought range, and short-term correction needs are gradually becoming apparent. However, the short-term moving average system has collectively turned upwards, providing effective support for prices, forming a balance of 'pressure above, support below'.
Bitcoin's short-term support focuses on 91500 USD and 90000 USD integer levels, the former is the starting point of the early morning rebound, while the latter is a recent oscillating bull-bear conversion platform, with dual support solidifying the correction baseline; resistance above is concentrated at 94500 USD, where this position overlaps with previous dense trading areas and Bollinger band pressure. If the evening initial unemployment claims data continues to show signs of employment weakness, a significant breakthrough may be anticipated to test the 96000 USD level.
Short-term Bitcoin suggestions reference:
1. Buy near the 915000-91000 area, target 92300-92800
2. Sell near the 94000-94500 area, target 93300-92500
Ethereum is synchronously showing rebound characteristics, with previous support levels of 2950 USD and 2870 USD having been raised to 3080 USD and 3000 USD, forming a ladder-like defense system; key resistance during the day is located in the 3250-3300 USD area, and breaking through this will directly face the core resistance area of 3500-3700 USD from early last month’s rebound — this area is the 'bull-bear watershed' of this rebound; if it cannot be effectively broken, profit-taking by institutions may trigger a short-seller counterattack, and the price may experience a deep correction again.
Short-term Ethereum suggestions reference:
1. Buy near the 3080-3000 area, target 3130-3180
2. Sell near the 3250-3300 area, target 3200-3160
Key going forward: Initial claims data will determine the short-term direction
The current market focus has shifted to the evening initial unemployment claims data. If the data continues to confirm weakness in the labor market, it will further strengthen rate cut expectations, providing momentum for dual currencies to break through technical resistance; conversely, if the data exceeds expectations and shows strength, it may lead to a cooling of rate cut expectations and cause prices to test support levels. Overall, the logic of macroeconomic easing remains intact; after technical repairs, there is still upward space, and it is recommended to focus on the effectiveness of Bitcoin's 94500 USD and Ethereum's 3300 USD breakthroughs to assess the continuity of the rebound.
This article is exclusively provided by Jane and represents personal views only. Due to the timing of the article's release, the above views or suggestions may not be timely and are for reference only. Risks are borne by the reader, and please indicate the source if reprinted. Manage trading positions reasonably, do not engage in heavy or full position operations. Develop good investment habits, and Jane wishes you happy investing! More real-time information can be consulted online!
Written by Jane crypto
