#美SEC推动加密创新监管 #美国非农数据超预期 $BTC $ETH
As of December 4, 2025, the U.S. political and economic dynamics show a complex impact on the cryptocurrency market: the mainstream market is buoyed by regulation and macro expectations, while 'Trump concept' related assets have faced severe setbacks.
I. Overview of Core Dynamics
Key Events Impacting the Market Today:
🔴 Political and Regulatory Dynamics
· Trade Policy: President Trump defends the tariff policy, accusing countries like Japan and South Korea of 'exploiting' the United States. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin expresses optimism about the Supreme Court maintaining the legality of tariffs.
· Federal Reserve personnel: Trump hinted at appointing White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve chairman, raising concerns among bond market investors that he might significantly cut rates to please the president.
· Crypto regulation: U.S. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins stated that the (cryptocurrency market structure bill) is about to pass, and the SEC plans to unveil a new regulatory framework that includes 'innovation exemptions'.
🟢 Economic and market data
· Employment data: The U.S. ADP employment number unexpectedly decreased by 32,000 in November, the largest drop since March 2023.
· Services index: The U.S. ISM services PMI rose to 52.6 in November, reaching a nine-month high.
· Market expectations: Weak ADP data has made the market almost certain that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December.
2. Specific impact on the cryptocurrency market
The above dynamics have produced a 'overall boost' and 'localized storm' effect on the cryptocurrency market through various channels.
1. Mainstream cryptocurrency market has rebounded significantly
· Main performance: Bitcoin rebounded strongly on December 3, returning above $93,000; Ethereum also rose simultaneously.
· Core drivers:
· Clear regulatory expectations: The SEC chairman's statements regarding the upcoming new regulatory framework and bill are viewed by the market as a significant positive, reducing policy uncertainty.
· Institutional adoption acceleration: Global asset management giant Vanguard Group announces the opening of a platform for trading cryptocurrency ETFs, increasing institutional adoption willingness.
· Macro interest rate expectations: Weak employment data has reinforced the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations, and a low interest rate environment usually helps boost risk assets like Bitcoin.
2. 'Trump concept' crypto assets faced sell-offs
In stark contrast to the mainstream market rebound, crypto assets closely associated with the Trump family have plummeted, and the so-called 'Trump premium' in the market has rapidly turned into 'Trump drag'.
· Main performance:
· American Bitcoin: A mining company co-founded by Trump's second son Eric, saw its stock price plummet over 38% on the first day after the end of the stock lock-up period, briefly halving.
· Other related projects: The stock price of Alt5 Sigma, promoted by Trump's sons, has dropped over 80% from its peak this year; the price of the meme coin named after Trump has fallen about 90% from its high.
· Core reasons: This is mainly interpreted as a re-evaluation of specific projects' values and profit-taking, rather than a denial of the overall crypto market. The 'Trump premium' supporting these assets has dissipated due to the project's own performance and the end of lock-up periods.
3. Subsequent market outlook and key points of attention
In the coming period, the market may focus on the following points:
· Federal Reserve decisions and personnel: The interest rate decision in December is the biggest short-term focus. In the long run, if Hassett is confirmed to head the Federal Reserve, his monetary policy direction will have a profound impact on all risk assets (including cryptocurrencies).
· Regulatory progress: It is essential to closely monitor the detailed terms of the SEC's 'innovation exemption' framework and the legislative process of the (cryptocurrency market structure bill), as this will be key to the industry's path to compliance.
· Market differentiation: The crash of 'Trump concept' assets warns of the risks associated with reliance on a single narrative or celebrity endorsement. The market's reward mechanism may be shifting from speculation to focusing on project fundamentals, regulatory clarity, and actual institutional capital inflows.
💎 Summary
Overall, the current U.S. political and economic dynamics have a dual impact on the cryptocurrency market: macro interest rate cut expectations and regulatory dawn provide overall support for the market; however, at the same time, the market is undergoing a localized 'de-mystification', severely liquidating associated assets lacking substantial support.
