In this wave of counterfeit markets, many people haven't reacted yet.
It's no longer the era of 'buying anything will go up' like last year or the year before.
The market has completely changed its rules.
① New coins are crazily listed, and high valuations directly siphon away all liquidity.
In the past, a new project had to tell a story, build a narrative, and attract attention;
Now, the FDV comes up to tens of billions directly,
With the market saying 'high quality', before you even jump in, liquidity has already been drained away.
But the question is, who will take over?
Now, three to five 'star projects' are launched every week,
Everyone has forgotten a fact: funds are limited, and new users are not coming in on a large scale.
Coins are unlimited, and new projects are endless.
② Old projects can't hold on, all dragged down into the abyss.
You will notice a particularly obvious phenomenon: as soon as new coins are listed, old coins start to fall.
It's not that they are not good, but there simply isn't enough capital to go around.
Now the structure of counterfeit projects is very simple: new projects suck blood → old projects fall → overall liquidity becomes thinner and thinner.
This is not 'narrative change', it's structural bloodletting.
③ When there is no external capital inflow, the market will turn into a complete PvP.
This is a brutally harsh but extremely true statement: no new money means players are slaughtering each other.
Don't fantasize anymore about 'high quality + low market value = must rise'.
Don't think 'as long as there's hype, it can take off'.
The current structure is:
Unlocks are many
Supply is large
FDV is ridiculous
Market is crowded
Buy orders are thin
You think it will rise, it thinks you will take over, in the end, everyone becomes leeks together.
④ The selling pressure from large unlocks cannot be compensated by the current capital inflow.
In the past, during the counterfeit frenzy, there were new users, FOMO, and dumb money.
What is the current capital?
Picky, cautious, professional, like snipers only shooting at certainty.
And what is unlocking? Continuous bullets flying towards you.
Inflows are like a few drops of water, unlocking is like a waterfall. Can this hold up?
This is not pessimism.
This is data.
This is structure.
This is the market.
What you should think about now is not: 'Which counterfeit will go a hundred times?'
But: 'Under this structure, who can still survive? Who can still rise? Who can still hold on?'
This is the core capability of the new stage.