The significant depreciation of the US dollar is not a "sufficient condition" for the rise of Bitcoin, but it is the true "trigger switch" and "funding switch" for the last three super bull markets.
Currently (December 2025), the US dollar index is still in a downward channel, and this round of bull market is far from reaching its peak, with historical patterns still in effect.
Aligning the timeframes of the last three Bitcoin super bull markets with the RMB/USD trend:
End of 2015 - End of 2017 (Bitcoin from $300 to $20,000)
→ After the August 11, 2015 exchange rate reform, the rapid depreciation phase of the RMB ended, and from 2016 to 2017, the RMB fluctuated violently in the range of 6.2-7.0, but from the first quarter of 2017, under the dual effect of capital controls and a weaker dollar, the RMB began a nearly 20% appreciation (from about 6.95 to 6.15).
→ During the same period, the US dollar index fell from 103 to 88, which is a typical dollar depreciation cycle.
→ The real ignition of Bitcoin in 2017 occurred during this wave of RMB appreciation and dollar depreciation cycle.
March 2020 - November 2021 (Bitcoin from $3,800 to $69,000)
→ After May 2020, the RMB began a unilateral appreciation, rising from 7.17 to 6.35 in May 2021 (an appreciation of over 11%), which coincided perfectly with Bitcoin's surge from $10,000 to $69,000.
→ During the same period, the US dollar index fell from 103 to 89 (early 2020-2021), with the Federal Reserve injecting liquidity + zero interest rates leading to a significant depreciation of the dollar.
→ The year of the most vigorous RMB appreciation was also the craziest year for Bitcoin.
October 2023 - 2025 (ongoing)
→ After the Federal Reserve began its rate-cutting cycle in September 2024, the US dollar index fell from 106 to about 98 in December 2025 (a depreciation of about 7-8%, still ongoing).
→ The RMB rose from 7.36 in October 2024 to the current 6.9 (still in the appreciation channel), with an appreciation of nearly 5%, and this trend continues.
→ Bitcoin started from $60,000 in October 2024 and has now surpassed $100,000 (close to $130,000 historical high in December 2025), fully in line with historical patterns.
Core macro logic (the depreciation of the dollar will ignite a Bitcoin bull market): Dollar depreciation = leading indicator of global liquidity flooding
A decline in the US dollar index usually indicates that the Federal Reserve has entered a loosening cycle (rate cuts + balance sheet expansion), with global dollar liquidity at its peak, and Bitcoin, as "digital gold + high-risk asset", naturally benefits the most. #美联储重启降息步伐
