Dear friends in the Kite ecosystem, I am Xiao Ye

A rational examination of Kite: Has the valuation already overdrawn the imaginative space for the next three years?

Kite's current market performance, especially after gaining support from top institutions such as PayPal Ventures, has triggered a deep discussion about the rationality of its valuation. A core question has surfaced: Has its nearly $1 billion fully diluted valuation (FDV) already overdrawn the growth expectations for the next three years?

From a valuation logic perspective, the market seems to be engaged in a "future discounting competition." The current price not only reflects existing technological progress but has also incorporated the smooth launch of the mainnet 2.0 in 2026, the maturity of the smart agent module, and even the prosperity of the entire AI agent economic ecosystem into the pricing model. This kind of "perfect expectation pricing" means that the project's development path in the coming years must have almost zero tolerance for errors—any technical bottlenecks, ecological progress falling short of expectations, or intensified market competition could become the trigger for the collapse of the valuation logic.

Beneath the halo of institutional endorsement lies the shadow of liquidity risk. The tokens held by investment institutions (accounting for about 12% of the total supply) will gradually be unlocked in the future. Historical experience shows that the exit rhythm of institutional investors does not always sync with the project's fundamentals. When early low-priced chips convert into market selling pressure, secondary market investors may face ongoing valuation squeeze. Currently, only 18% of the circulating supply makes the unlocking path in the coming years a "Sword of Damocles" hanging over the price.

What is even more thought-provoking is the gap between narrative and reality. The grand vision of Kite's "AI agent payment infrastructure" is indeed impressive, but this track is still in the early exploration stage, facing multiple uncertainties such as technological realization, application scenario implementation, and regulatory frameworks. Market enthusiasm has compressed the long technological evolution and ecological construction into an overnight price frenzy, and this mismatch in time and space itself breeds risks.

True value investors should distinguish between "good projects" and "good prices." Kite's technological vision may represent the future, but its current valuation already reflects too many perfect expectations. In the highly volatile environment of the cryptocurrency market, the greatest risk often comes from paying too high a current price for distant stars. @KITE AI #KITE $KITE