Bitcoin CEX holdings plummet: The supply crisis is here, $200,000 is not a dream, but a certainty!

Imagine this: the global CEX holdings are like a funnel, gradually "siphoning" Bitcoin away.

It's not about selling, but users are frantically transferring to cold wallets and hoarding on their own.

This is not panic; it's a signal of extreme confidence!

On December 4, 2025, the price of BTC hovers around $93,000, but the total CEX holdings have shrunk to 2,095,000 coins—a drop of 22.4% from the beginning of the year and a decrease of 209,000 coins from six months ago.

This "siphoning" trend is brewing a supply explosion: miners produce only 450 BTC per day, while ETFs accumulate equivalent to half a year's mining output in just one week.

For BTC to break through the $200,000 mark, it’s not about luck, but the iron law driven by macro factors and on-chain dynamics.

Don’t rush; this is not empty talk. We will break down the data, logic, and future paths step by step—why this trend will make Wall Street tremble, why retail investors should hoard coins now, and why institutions are gearing up.

After reading this, you will understand: BTC in 2025 is not a "bet," but a "hedge anchor."

1. CEX holdings plummet: From "selling pressure mountain" to "hoarding fortress" The CEX holdings are the "barometer" of BTC prices: high levels indicate strong selling pressure, while low levels indicate a buying frenzy.

21 major exchanges saw a net outflow of 43,000 coins within 30 days. Historical comparison: since the FTX crash in 2022, CEX BTC holdings have cumulatively declined by 22.4%.

From November 2024 to now, there has been an outflow of 668,000 coins. This is not a bear market signal, but rather a HODLer awakening: 85% of BTC has been locked up by them and will not be sold in the short term.

Why the crash? Do users distrust exchanges? Wrong! On the contrary, USDT reserves hit a record $4.28 billion, with institutions hoarding coins through ETFs in a "detour."

Exchanges have sufficient liquidity (total reserves exceed $1 trillion), but a BTC supply bottleneck has emerged—450 coins mined daily, yet tens of thousands are "permanently sealed."

This is reminiscent of the pre-2017 bull market when exchange reserves fell from 3 million coins to 2 million coins, followed by BTC skyrocketing from $1,000 to $20,000.

In 2025, the halving effect combined with a supply cut (annual production rate drops to 0.8%), but what about demand? ETFs are absorbing 10,000 BTC in a single day.

If the outflow continues, with a decrease of 100,000 coins in supply each month, price pressure will amplify exponentially. CEX is no longer a "seller's market" but a "buyer scarcity"—this is the fuel for $200,000! #比特币VS代币化黄金 #美SEC推动加密创新监管