Crypto Circle Early Knowledge December 5

- The latest survey from the Federal Reserve shows that most economists expect a 25 basis point rate cut in December and a reduction in rates to the range of 3.25%-3.5% by early 2026, with the market having a strong consensus on the future easing path.

- The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. has hit a two-year low, and following the announcement, the market's bet on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month has risen to 89.2%, further strengthening the expectation that "December's rate cut is a done deal."

Now let's look at market hotspots:

- Yesterday, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $14.90 million, while the Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of $140 million. Today's Fear and Greed Index is at 27!

- JPMorgan stated that the strategy can avoid being forced to sell coins as long as the enterprise value to Bitcoin holdings ratio remains above 1, currently at 1.13.

- Argentine state-owned energy giant YPF is discussing allowing drivers to pay for gasoline and diesel with cryptocurrency.

Finally, let's look at industry dynamics:

- Vitalik congratulated the completion of the Ethereum Fusaka upgrade, stating that PeerDAS has officially enabled sharding for Ethereum, and will focus on improving stability and throughput in the next two years.

- The Ledger research team disclosed vulnerabilities in MediaTek chips that can be exploited by EMFI attacks.

Today's summary:

Whether the four-year bull-bear cycle is broken depends on this critical December: if the monthly line breaks below the 50-week moving average, it indicates the old cycle continues; if it successfully stabilizes, the bull market remains, and a new cycle may officially begin.

I am your host Mark, this is "Crypto Circle Early Knowledge," see you tomorrow!