**🔥🔥🔥Exploded! Non-farm data suddenly “collapsed”, will the cryptocurrency market take off today?**
This morning's U.S. non-farm employment data poured a bucket of cold water on the market—new jobs only 128,000, and the unemployment rate jumped to 4.2%, both weaker than expected. The market instantly erupted: **the expectation of interest rate cuts soared to over 80% probability for March next year**, U.S. stock futures fell and then rose, $BTC quickly pulled back to the $68,000 mark after a spike.
**This data is not simple:**
1. **Cracks in the job market have appeared**—weakness in the service industry + contraction in manufacturing, it's hard for the Federal Reserve to be “tough”;
2. **Interest rate cut trades fully revived**—U.S. Treasury yields plummeted, the U.S. dollar index fell below 104, and liquidity expectations are being reassessed;
3. **Secret logic line in the cryptocurrency market**: expectation of interest rate cuts → weakening of the dollar → institutions hedge against inflation demand → strengthening of the capital absorption effect of crypto assets. Especially recently, BlackRock's spot ETF has seen net inflows for 17 consecutive days, and the amount of accumulation by on-chain whales has reached a new high for October, with smart money already quietly positioning. $BNB
**Key deductions:**
- In the short term, if U.S. stocks surge due to interest rate cut expectations, it may divert funds, but in the medium term, the easing of U.S. dollar liquidity is the “rocket fuel” for the cryptocurrency market.
- Beware of spike trading: the biggest pain point for December options is at $65,000, data volatility is easily amplified, but once a trend is formed, a pullback is an opportunity.
**Deep insights:**
The current market has shifted from “whether to cut interest rates” to “how long to cut interest rates,” once the Fed eases its stance, the narrative of altcoin season may be triggered earlier. Remember: **before the liquidity inflection point, position size is more important than timing.**
**What do you think?**
Do you believe this wave of interest rate cut expectations can lead Bitcoin to break its previous high, or is the “sell the news” trap already brewing? Leave your judgment in the comments! $ADA
