$ETH The two coins are gaining traction today, currently priced at 1648.96, with a 24-hour change of +1.64%. However, the long and short signals aren't clean, so don't just chase the gains. This rebound is happening against a backdrop of extreme fear index at 12, with the price approaching the 1667 resistance but struggling to break through. In the latest hour, active sell volume has surpassed buy volume, indicating that the rebound momentum is waning; it seems more like a test near the resistance rather than the start of a trend.
My judgment: Stay on the sidelines. The macro environment is extremely unfavorable (CPI above 4%, institutional demand is drying up) and there’s a sharp contradiction with the short-term technicals. The direction of OI increase is leaning towards shorts, the long/short ratio is decreasing, and the funding rate is negative, suggesting that market movers are piling on shorts rather than longs. The current rebound lacks the win rate for going long.
On the macro front: The US CPI has breached 4%, hitting a three-year high, and the Federal Reserve has no room to cut rates; the fear and greed index at 12 is in extreme fear; institutional buying has dried up, with high ETF fund concentration, and the macro risk appetite is extremely poor, continuously pressuring crypto assets.
Position and larger cycle: The current price of 1649 is above the SMA20 (1635), showing a short-term bullish bias, but the 1667 resistance is clearly unbroken. The 24-hour support at 1602 is a critical defense line; once breached, it opens up accelerated downside space below 1583. The larger cycle is in a downward continuation under macro tightening pressure, and an extreme fear index of 12 could signal a mid-to-long-term bottom, or it might trigger the final liquidity flush.
Trading plan: Wait for confirmation. If the volume stabilizes above 1667 and the fear and greed index rebounds to above 25, consider a light long position around 1657, with a stop loss at 1583, first target at 1706, and second target at 1764; if it breaks below the 1602 support, the bearish trend continues, and I will wait for the certainty of a bottom post-panic selling. Positioning is advised to be light.
The above is purely personal opinion and should not be considered as trading advice.
My judgment: Stay on the sidelines. The macro environment is extremely unfavorable (CPI above 4%, institutional demand is drying up) and there’s a sharp contradiction with the short-term technicals. The direction of OI increase is leaning towards shorts, the long/short ratio is decreasing, and the funding rate is negative, suggesting that market movers are piling on shorts rather than longs. The current rebound lacks the win rate for going long.
On the macro front: The US CPI has breached 4%, hitting a three-year high, and the Federal Reserve has no room to cut rates; the fear and greed index at 12 is in extreme fear; institutional buying has dried up, with high ETF fund concentration, and the macro risk appetite is extremely poor, continuously pressuring crypto assets.
Position and larger cycle: The current price of 1649 is above the SMA20 (1635), showing a short-term bullish bias, but the 1667 resistance is clearly unbroken. The 24-hour support at 1602 is a critical defense line; once breached, it opens up accelerated downside space below 1583. The larger cycle is in a downward continuation under macro tightening pressure, and an extreme fear index of 12 could signal a mid-to-long-term bottom, or it might trigger the final liquidity flush.
Trading plan: Wait for confirmation. If the volume stabilizes above 1667 and the fear and greed index rebounds to above 25, consider a light long position around 1657, with a stop loss at 1583, first target at 1706, and second target at 1764; if it breaks below the 1602 support, the bearish trend continues, and I will wait for the certainty of a bottom post-panic selling. Positioning is advised to be light.
The above is purely personal opinion and should not be considered as trading advice.