Brothers, I am Mig
I know you must be anxious right now—this BTC is clearly coming down from its peak, the four-hour chart has formed a dead cross, is it a bull pulling back to give a buying opportunity, or is it a trend reversal that requires cutting losses?
Don't rush, brew a cup of tea, let me explain the three layers of technology, information, and strategy clearly to you.
In terms of news—who will benefit from tonight's 'data bomb'?
The initial jobless claims in the U.S. just announced are 191,000, a new low in over two years, much stronger than expected!
Don't just watch the excitement, let Mig translate the 'implicit meaning' of this data for you:
The data itself = good economy = theoretically, the Federal Reserve should not be in a hurry to cut interest rates. This is sentimentally bearish for risk assets in the short term.
But the market reaction = traders are betting! They are betting that the strong employment market may just be a facade, and the Federal Reserve is more focused on cooling inflation, so expectations for a rate cut in December are actually rising.
The core impact chain for the cryptocurrency market is: Rate cut expectations ↑ → Potential weakening expectations for the dollar index ↑ → Global liquidity expectations improve → Positive for Bitcoin and other crypto assets.
Therefore, the essence of this news is 'short-term emotions are complex, but medium to long-term expectations are optimistic'. It gives the market hope that 'things will get better in the future', but cannot immediately resolve the current technical dilemma of 'death cross + insufficient volume'. The market needs time to digest.
Technical aspect - what is the 'language' on the chart warning?
Now on the four-hour chart, several key levels must be etched in your mind:
Resistance above: 96000 USD is the first ghost gate, 100000 is a psychological barrier. Without volume, don't even think about it.
Support below: The first line of defense is at 89000, where it is a previous trading platform and a must-win area! If it breaks, it will likely test 86000, and even challenge the 'bottom lifeline' at 84000.
The most critical signal: The MACD white and yellow lines are indeed still above the 0 axis, indicating that the bullish pattern of the larger cycle has not been destroyed. However, a death cross has formed, which is called a 'high position death cross', a clear warning of short-term momentum exhaustion. Combined with 'insufficient volume', it indicates that neither side can push it higher, and both bulls and bears are being cautious, waiting for an external force to break the balance.
Technical summary: Short-term bearish adjustment, key focus on the strength of support at 89000. The bull-bear dividing line of the major trend is at 84000; if it doesn't break, the story isn't over.
My judgment is: 'short-term bearish and long-term bullish, retreating to advance'. Sharp declines in a bull market are often to pave the way for better rises.
Future projections: The most likely scenario is that the market, under the complex emotions and technical pressure of death cross after the data, first tests the support zone of 89000-86000, completing a cleansing.
If it can stabilize here, and the MACD turns around near the 0 axis, then after accumulating strength, it can attack 96000 or even higher, which would be more solid. The probability of a direct V-shaped rebound currently looks low.
The market is always changing, but logic and discipline remain unchanged. Just like tonight, merely looking at the data isn't enough; one must understand how the market 'interprets' the data; simply observing the death cross isn't enough; one must know its 'position' within the entire trend.
If you think this 'onion peeling' style of analysis is useful to you, want to know Mig's real-time judgment on the key point of 89000, want to know where I have placed my orders, or fear missing the next wave of starting signals...
Don't hesitate, pay attention to Mig. I not only provide viewpoints but also methods, reminders, and a warm atmosphere for mutual support. If you don't know the specific entry and exit points, and for fans holding positions, you can follow Mig, who will announce daily cryptocurrencies and entry and exit points in the chat room!!
