In the volatile world of global commodities, copper shines as a rising star, with its price reaching new record levels, driven by rare positive expectations from Citibank. At the same time, gold faces downward pressure, with anticipation surrounding the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting. These developments come amid potential trade tensions and changes in interest rates, reflecting the complex dynamics of the market. In this article, we will review the full details of recent events, focusing on price movements, expert opinions, and potential impacts on global markets, including indirect links to the cryptocurrency sector.
### Background of the rise: New historical peak for copper
The copper market has seen a dramatic rise in recent days, reaching a new historical peak of $11,581.50 per ton on the Shanghai Exchange early Friday morning, according to data released on December 5, 2025. This rise reflects increasing demand for the red metal, which is considered a key indicator of global economic growth due to its widespread use in infrastructure and green industries such as electric vehicles and renewable energy.
This momentum comes after a period of relative stability, with the price trading around $10,000 per ton in previous months. The main reason for this rise is Citi's rare positive forecasts, in addition to large withdrawals from warehouses. On the other hand, gold prices have declined, with futures and spot prices retreating amid profit-taking and anticipation of Federal Reserve decisions.
### Main reasons for the rise: Citi expectations and inventory tensions
Analysts at Citi, led by Max Layton, issued rare bullish forecasts, expecting an average price of $13,000 per ton in the second quarter of 2026. According to Layton, this rise is due to "pulling metal into the United States, leaving other areas short of supplies," with a gradually positive fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop. Layton confirmed: "The confidence in copper’s rise until 2026 is supported by multiple bullish factors, including a gradually positive fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop."
A massive withdrawal by Mercuria Energy Group has contributed to this trend. The company withdrew about $500 million worth of copper from the London Metal Exchange (LME), the largest stock cancellation in over a decade. This action indicates tension in the global supply system, aligning with Citi's view of ongoing contraction.
In addition, traders are monitoring trade risks, as additional shipments have headed towards U.S. ports in preparation for potential tariffs, according to reports from Jane Street. Exchange inventories have also risen to over 656,000 tons, the highest level since 2018, with the U.S. holding about two-thirds of this amount in COMEX warehouses.
### Expert opinions: Between optimism and caution
Not all opinions are equally optimistic. Macquarie Group analysts, led by Peter Taylor, see copper reaching new highs, but they warn that "prices above $11,000 per ton are currently unsustainable, as the physical market is not tight enough." On the other hand, Goldman Sachs expects no real supply shortage until 2029, indicating a transitional period before significant price pressure.
As for gold, the World Gold Council expects an increase of 15% to 30% in 2026. However, the price remains stuck at $4,200 per ounce currently, amid profit-taking and anticipation of the Federal Reserve meeting. A Reuters poll (from November 28 to December 4) showed that 82% of economists expect a cut of 25 basis points in the next meeting, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4%, with another cut expected in December. The CME FedWatch tool confirms that traders are fully pricing in this cut.
In energy markets, prices rose slightly due to new Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil facilities, hindering peace talks and increasing supply concerns. According to Cryptopolitan, the expected decrease in interest rates will help boost economic activity and increase demand for oil.
### Data and statistics: A numerical perspective
Let's take a look at the key numbers supporting this analysis:
| Commodity/Event | Current Price/Value | Future Expectations | Main Event |
|-------------------------|-------------------------|-------------------------|---------------|
| Copper (Shanghai) | $11,581.50/ton | $13,000/ton (Q2 2026, Citi) | New historical peak |
| LME inventories | >656,000 tons | - | Highest since 2018 |
| Mercuria withdrawal | $500 million | - | Largest in >10 years |
| Gold (spot/futures) | $4,200/ounce | $3,400 (2025, Reuters); $4,275 (2026) | Decline due to profit-taking |
| Federal interest rate cut | 25 basis points | to 3.75%-4% | Next week's meeting |
This data highlights the contrast between copper, which is experiencing strong demand, and gold, which is under temporary pressure.
### Links with cryptocurrencies: Indirect effects
Although the article focuses on traditional commodities, it notes indirect links to the cryptocurrency sector. For example, Cryptopolitan mentioned developments like "Vanguard breaking tradition by providing new access to cryptocurrency ETFs," and "Forward Industries raising its price back up thanks to support from Galaxy and Jump Crypto for decentralized finance projects." Live analyses of the crypto market are also referenced, reflecting how the rise of commodities like copper – which supports the green transition – can bolster confidence in cryptocurrencies related to mining or renewable energy. However, there is currently no direct pricing data for crypto in the current context.
### Summary: Opportunities and risks in the commodity market
In conclusion, copper's rise to over $11,500 per ton is a positive sign for the global economy, supported by Citi's bold forecasts and large withdrawals, but it faces sustainability challenges according to Macquarie and Goldman Sachs. Gold will remain under pressure until the path of interest rates becomes clear. As the Federal Reserve meeting approaches, markets may experience additional volatility, indirectly affecting cryptocurrencies and traditional investments. If you are an investor, consider diversifying between commodities and digital assets, while being cautious of trade risks. Will copper continue to rise, or will gold regain its luster? Time will tell, but current analyses call for vigilance.
