Recently, the gold market has shown distinct characteristics of "technical oscillation and accumulation, with fundamental support from bullish sentiment." The daily trend presents a stark contrast to the medium- and long-term trend, and the bull-bear battle is at a critical decision-making period.
1. Technical aspect: High-level tug-of-war shows a stalemate, short-term rhythm awaits guidance.
From the perspective of market patterns, gold K-line frequently shows long upper and lower shadows, with prices consistently hovering close to the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, highlighting an intensifying divergence between bulls and bears. Capital mainly focuses on intra-day fluctuation operations, lacking a clear directional trend. However, the short-term moving average system has not deteriorated; the 5-day and 10-day moving averages still maintain an upward trend, and the technical basis for the medium-term upward trend remains intact, representing a typical pattern of "high-level digestion rather than trend reversal."
Two, fundamentals: multiple positive factors resonate, medium and long-term upward logic solid
The expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has soared, and monetary easing has opened up upward space for gold prices. The current market probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has surged to over 89%, far exceeding the 63% at the beginning of November, primarily due to weak signals from U.S. economic data and dovish statements from Federal Reserve officials. On one hand, the U.S. unemployment rate for September rose to 4.4%, retail sales fell short of expectations, and the manufacturing PMI remained below the threshold, clearly indicating signs of economic cooling; on the other hand, several officials, including New York Fed President Williams, have signaled a rate cut, combined with Trump's plan to nominate a dovish candidate for the next Federal Reserve chair, further strengthening market expectations for easing, highlighting the allocation value of gold as a non-yielding asset.
The global central bank gold buying spree continues, building a 'safety cushion' for gold prices. Data from the World Gold Council shows that in the third quarter of 2025, global central banks net purchased 220 tons of gold, a year-on-year increase of 10%; in October alone, net purchases amounted to 53 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 36%, creating the largest monthly demand of the year. The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 12 consecutive months, with reserves reaching 74.09 million ounces by the end of October, accounting for a historical high proportion of foreign exchange reserves. Under the trend of 'de-dollarization', central banks in various countries are using gold as a core tool to hedge against currency depreciation and geopolitical risks, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting to continue increasing their holdings in the coming year, providing robust long-term support for gold prices.
Three, focus of the day
Today, attention should be focused on the U.S. core PCE price index for September. If the data shows a moderation in inflation pressure, it will further strengthen rate cut expectations and push gold prices to challenge the resistance at $4250; conversely, if inflation data exceeds expectations, gold prices may retest the support range of $4180-$4150, but this will not change the medium to long-term upward trend. In terms of key levels, $4150 is the core support, and breaking below it would weaken the trend; $4225-$4230 is the key pressure for the day, and if it breaks above $4250, a new round of main rise will begin.
