From a technical perspective, how should we view this rebound in Bitcoin? In one sentence: Most of it is a desperate escape. The stronger the rebound, the more appealing the short positions.
Currently, Bitcoin has officially entered a downward trend on the weekly chart. The recent rise we see is merely a correction from the oversold condition on the weekly level; meanwhile, the monthly MACD has already formed a death cross at a high position, and the daily chart also maintains a downward structure. This weak structure resonating across multiple timeframes determines that: ➡ The direction remains down, and the rebound is merely a rhythm, not a trend.
The most critical resistance zone above is between 97000 - 102000. Before the trend is reversed, this will be a strong pressure stacked upon strong pressure. The market will not plummet, but the trend will follow its course, so be patient and wait for the time window that belongs to the bears.
In December, there are three key macroeconomic time points that will almost dictate the rhythm of the entire market in the next three weeks. Here’s a condensed focus for everyone:
① December 11: Federal Reserve interest rate decision
The market originally had a consensus expectation that there would be no interest rate cut in December, but recently the wind has changed - the probability of an interest rate cut has soared to 87%.
Once the interest rate expectations reverse direction, market volatility will not be small.
Will the positive expectations be realized in advance? Or will there be a reverse volatility after implementation? This is the first risk point.
② December 19: Bank of Japan interest rate decision
The original plan was 'no interest rate hike', but the remarks from the Governor of the Bank of Japan on Monday were alarming: suggesting that there is a high probability of an interest rate hike on December 19.
The reverse changes in the Bank of Japan's policies have a huge impact:
Interest rate hike = capital flows back to Japan
Risk assets under pressure
The USD/JPY exchange rate fluctuations, global liquidity follows the turbulence
This is the second major uncertainty.
③ December 26: Btc annual massive options delivery
This is the most important delivery date of the year-end: Q4 quarter-end + the last delivery window of the year = massive delivery overlap. The nominal value reaches - 23 billion.
How to interpret the options data?
Current maximum pain point position: 100000
PUT maximum peak: 84k
This means:
➡ For December, breaking through and stabilizing above 100,000 will be extremely difficult.
➡ 84k is the main defensive line for institutions; after breaking 84 in the past few days, it quickly rebounded, which is likely the result of 'short protection' efforts.
In summary, the technical downtrend is clear; the macroeconomic pressures are significant. December will be a month filled with misaligned expectations and high volatility. The key to the market is not direction, but rhythm.
Any strong rebound of Btc is more like an opportunity for you to run.
The real market situation may only unfold after these macro key points are established.
\u003cc-83/\u003e\u003ct-84/\u003e\u003ct-85/\u003e
