#加密市场观察 Silver prices hit a historic high! The increase this year exceeds 90%, can it reach 65 dollars in the future?

Since the beginning of this year, the silver market has entered a super bull market—spot prices have surged by over 90%, significantly outperforming gold; the volatility in the futures market has skyrocketed, with several instances of daily price swings exceeding 5% after October, and both spot and futures prices have continuously set historical records.

This wave of increase is by no means accidental, but rather a triple resonance of supply and demand, policies, and capital. From a core logical perspective, global mined silver production is expected to drop to 820 million ounces by 2025 (a 12% decrease from the peak in 2020), the supply-demand gap continues to widen, and with global inventories declining, the supply in the spot market is tightening, leading to a premium in the London and domestic markets, while the pressure from December deliveries in the U.S. adds further upward momentum. As a product with both financial and commodity attributes, silver benefits from the macro environment of global liquidity easing and is favored by safe-haven funds and investment allocation—global silver investment demand is expected to reach 1.334 billion ounces by 2025 (an 8.2% increase year-on-year), accounting for 37% of total demand, while global silver ETFs have increased their holdings by over 500 tons in six months, becoming a key driver of price increases.

Institutions are very confident about the future market: UBS has raised its silver price target for 2026 to 58-60 dollars per ounce, not ruling out the possibility of reaching 65 dollars; Citigroup and Standard Chartered predict that silver prices will stabilize above 55 dollars in the next two quarters. The medium- to long-term logic supporting the strength of precious metals remains—global central banks are de-dollarizing by purchasing gold, the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates, suppressing real interest rates and the dollar, and the safe-haven allocation value of precious metals amid the high valuations of AI tech stocks all provide strong support for silver prices.

However, it is necessary to be cautious as high prices inevitably come with high volatility. Experts remind that current market risks are increasing, and investors must strictly adhere to risk management bottom lines, manage positions and funds based on their own asset conditions and risk tolerance, and avoid blindly chasing highs. Whether this wave of “kingly market” for silver can continue depends critically on whether the supply-demand gap can persist and whether capital inflows are stable, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's policy trends and global inventory changes in the future.