The price trend of Bitcoin in November 2025 presents a complex picture for investors, with both bearish technical signals and possible early signs of a rebound. Although this cryptocurrency remains deeply entrenched in a long-term downward trend, the interplay of technical indicators and macroeconomic factors suggests a delicate balance between short-term recovery and the risk of a 'false dawn.' This article will analyze the technical and macroeconomic factors affecting Bitcoin's trend and delve into whether the current market dynamics truly indicate a genuine reversal or just a temporary respite.
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Technical Analysis: Bearish momentum and oversold conditions
The price trend of Bitcoin in November 2025
Closed with a large red candle
This highlights downward momentum, and the MACD oscillating indicator has also shown a bearish crossover. This technical pattern is typically interpreted as a continuation signal, indicating that downward pressure may persist in the coming months. The price has repeatedly failed to break through the key resistance range of $93,000 to $94,000, a level widely regarded by traders as a key decision point in the market. Subsequently, bears have pushed the price below critical support levels, with the $84,000 mark facing direct pressure. A failure here could trigger a decline to $75,000, or even $57,700, if the lower support levels are breached.
However, technical indicators like the 14-day RSI may play a role.
Has issued an oversold signal
Falling below 30 may indicate an excessive downtrend. This situation typically presages a pause or short-term rebound in prices, but ultimately requires price trends and newly emerging support levels for validation. It is noteworthy that the RSI indicator has left the oversold territory. Moreover, the index remains above the 50 level, suggesting recovery potential. Despite these encouraging signals, they should not be viewed in isolation. A sustainable recovery requires breaking through the resistance range of $93,000 to $94,000, a feat that bulls have struggled to achieve for months.
Macroeconomic headwinds: interest rates, inflation, and global uncertainty
The technical challenges facing Bitcoin, coupled with a macroeconomic environment that remains unfavorable to risk assets, make the situation even more complicated.
The Federal Reserve's hawkish policy stance
The practice of maintaining high interest rates to curb inflation has diminished the appeal of non-yielding assets like cryptocurrencies. This trend has caused Bitcoin's price to fall below its 200-day moving average, a key trend-following indicator, exacerbating volatility.
Persistent inflation has
Exceeded the 3% threshold
This further drives investors towards safer, higher-yielding assets. For example, the price of Chainlink (LINK) fell by 47% from August to November 2025, reflecting broader negative impacts of risk assets amid high inflation. Meanwhile, the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional markets continues to deepen, with a correlation degree of 80%. There is a relationship between the performance of the S&P 500 index and the performance of major cryptocurrencies. This convergence highlights how macroeconomic developments—such as U.S. labor market reports, personal consumption expenditure price index data, and Federal Reserve statements—will increasingly influence the price trend of Bitcoin. Analyzing these factors will play a decisive role.
The uncertainty of the global economy adds another layer of complexity.
China's GDP growth rate for the third quarter is 4.8%
The moderate expansion in the eurozone has created a mixed situation, while central banks such as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England maintain a cautious stance. These conflicting signals have intensified the risk of long-term market volatility, as the price of Bitcoin is becoming a barometer for measuring overall economic vulnerability.
The risk of false dawn
The current market environment has raised concerns about a 'false boom' scenario, where early optimism may ultimately prove misleading.
The recovery of the RSI and a probability of 87.6%
Despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December possibly bringing short-term hope, these catalysts may not be enough to overcome deeply entrenched pessimism. Analysts warn that Bitcoin is entering the late stages of a bull market cycle, and macroeconomic conditions—especially stubborn inflation and uncertainties related to artificial intelligence—could undermine any nascent recovery.
Moreover,
Increased funds flowing into exchanges for Bitcoin
Data from institutions like Binance indicates that large holders are preparing to profit from potential price fluctuations, which may exacerbate selling pressure. Even if the interest rate cut in December brings a temporary boost, the risk of a false dawn remains high due to unresolved global challenges, including Japan's sovereign debt issues and economic pressures.
Conclusion: The delicate balance faced by investors
Bitcoin's short-term rebound depends on the delicate balance between technical resilience and macroeconomic catalysts. Although the oversold RSI indicator and the possibility of interest rate cuts in December provide a glimmer of hope, the broader bearish environment—characterized by a bearish MACD indicator, the breach of support levels, and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance—suggests that any recovery may be fleeting. Investors must remain cautious, recognizing that a sustainable reversal requires not only breaking through the $93,000 to $94,000 mark but also a substantial shift in macroeconomic conditions. Until then, the risk of a false recovery remains, necessitating a strategic approach prioritizing risk management over blind optimism.
