# SpaceX IPO New Issue Research Report

2026.06.11 Late Night | Winston & Hermes | Pre-Market $167

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## Pricing Analysis

| Variable | Value |

|------|------|

| Cost Price (IPO) | $142 (Subscription Price $135 + 5% Underwriting Fee) |

| Cost Price (preSPCX) | ~$167 (Bitget Secondary Buy) |

| Total Market Cap | $1.75T |

| IPO Financing Amount | $75B |

| Circulation Rate | 4.3% (Extremely Scarce) |

| Pre-Market Price (Trade.xyz) | $166.98 (+23.7%) |

## Circulation Rate Analysis

4.3% is the lowest circulation rate for a tech IPO in history. Comparison: Cerebras 15% first day +300%, ARM 10% first day +25%, Facebook 15% first day flat. Extreme scarcity means that a small buy order can significantly push up the price.

## Valuation Benchmark

| Company | Market Cap | P/S |

|------|------|:--:|

| Tesla | $1.2T | 10x |

| Meta | $1.8T | 9x |

| NVIDIA | $4.5T | 28x |

| SpaceX | $1.75T | 87x |

87x P/S far exceeds peers, but first-day trading driven by sentiment, not fundamentals, does not affect IPO logic.

## Position Deployment

| Platform | Number | Each | Locked | Allocation |

|------|:--:|------|------|------|

| Bitget IPO | 1 | $3,000 | $3,000 | 21 shares |

| Kraken IPO | 6 | $2,000 | $12,000 | 17 shares |

| Anan Wallet | 4 | ~$1,625 | $6,500 | Bet on low guarantee |

| Bitget preSPCX | 1 | $1,000 | $1,000 | 6 shares |

| **Total** | | | **$22,500** | **~44 shares** |

Locking $22.5K, excess return of ~$16K will hit tomorrow night, real risk exposure ~$6.4K (8%).

## Probability and Profit/Loss

| Scenario | Probability | Price | Profit/Loss |

|------|:--:|------|------|

| Dump | 15% | $120 | -$1,118 |

| Cold Open | 15% | $148 | +$114 |

| Benchmark | 35% | $169 | +$1,038 |

| Strong | 25% | $205 | +$2,622 |

| Frenzy | 10% | $262 | +$5,130 |

Weighted profit/loss ratio 15.3:1, max loss $1,118 (total capital 1.4%).

## Sell Plan

| Level | Trigger Price | Sell | Remaining |

|:--:|------|:--:|:--:|

| 1 | $162 | 15 shares | 35 |

| 2 | $175 | 12 shares | 23 |

| 3 | $195 | 12 shares | 11 |

| 4 | $220+ | 11 shares | 0 |

Hard stop-loss at $130 → liquidate all.

## Bullish Factors

- Circulation rate 4.3% is extremely scarce, no pressure on the supply side.

- ProShares 2x Long ETF (SPCF) launching the same day.

- Pre-market Trade.xyz at $167, consistently climbing before listing.

- $700B+ retail subscription orders.

- xStocks multi-platform collaborative event.

## Risks

- $75B massive financing creates inherent sell pressure.

- 87x P/S valuation is extremely high, Morningstar fair value is only $780 billion.

- Warren's letter to SEC requesting IPO delay.

- Tokenized securities ≠ real stocks.

- Historical large IPOs average max drawdown of 54% in the first year.

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