JPMorgan analysts noted that the dynamics of the bitcoin exchange rate are closely related to the financial stability of Strategy — one of the largest corporate holders $BTC . The main indicator of stability, experts say, is the mNAV ratio, which reflects the relationship between the company's market value and its bitcoin reserves.
According to recent data, despite the market decline in the second half of the year, the mNAV remains at 1.13, which is above the critical mark of 1. This indicates that the company is not under pressure from cryptocurrency sell-offs, and the worst phase for BTC's price is likely already behind.
Strategy's financial reserve
Strategy formed a reserve of $1.44 billion, allowing it to cover about two years of mandatory shareholder payouts. According to JPMorgan estimates, this reduces the risk of forced bitcoin sales and supports the company's stability, which is a positive signal for the entire cryptocurrency market.
Decline in hash rate and pressure on miners
Experts also point out factors that may exert short-term pressure on BTC's price:
decline in the Bitcoin network's hash rate associated with tightening regulatory measures in China;
decrease in mining profitability;
forced selling of coins by high-cost miners.
These factors create additional supply in the market, which may cause short-term volatility.
Bitcoin volatility is decreasing
Long-term BTC volatility has decreased from 84% in 2021 to 43% this year, according to Glassnode and Fanara Digital. The main reasons:
growth in institutional investor participation;
launch of regulated crypto instruments;
formation of a more mature and predictable cryptocurrency market.
What does this mean for Binance users
Stability of the price $BTC : retaining Strategy's reserves reduces the risk of a sharp price drop.
Short-term fluctuations: possible due to forced selling of coins by individual miners.
Long-term prospects: institutional participation and reduced volatility create a foundation for sustainable market growth.
Main risks
Possible new restrictions on mining in major regions.
Strong fluctuations in BTC price during sharp sell-offs by large holders.
External macroeconomic factors affecting the entire cryptocurrency market.
Conclusion
The financial stability of Strategy and the high mNAV ratio serve as a stabilizing factor for the cryptocurrency market. If Strategy does not start actively selling its bitcoins, a significant drop in price $BTC in the coming months is unlikely.
